Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo position maximum temperatures near 31°C on August 18 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's 42% implied probability on that threshold. Persistent Pacific high pressure supports typical mid-August warmth across the Kanto region, with urban heat island effects and high humidity amplifying daytime peaks, while model guidance shows limited day-to-day variability amid mostly cloudy conditions. Historical baselines place normal highs around 31.2°C, yet current short-range runs favor readings clustered near 30–32°C. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble model consensus expected over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data releases that could shift trader positioning on these narrow temperature bands.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月18日东京气温最高？
8月18日东京气温最高？
31°C 42%
30°C 26%
32°C 19%
29°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
10%
30°C
26%
31°C
42%
32°C
19%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 42%
30°C 26%
32°C 19%
29°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
25°C or below
$686 交易量
<1%
26°C
$25 交易量
<1%
27°C
$21 交易量
1%
28°C
$50 交易量
4%
29°C
$215 交易量
10%
30°C
$54 交易量
26%
31°C
$332 交易量
42%
32°C
$185 交易量
19%
33°C
$151 交易量
5%
34°C
$45 交易量
2%
35°C or higher
$47 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo position maximum temperatures near 31°C on August 18 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's 42% implied probability on that threshold. Persistent Pacific high pressure supports typical mid-August warmth across the Kanto region, with urban heat island effects and high humidity amplifying daytime peaks, while model guidance shows limited day-to-day variability amid mostly cloudy conditions. Historical baselines place normal highs around 31.2°C, yet current short-range runs favor readings clustered near 30–32°C. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble model consensus expected over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data releases that could shift trader positioning on these narrow temperature bands.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,810结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo position maximum temperatures near 31°C on August 18 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's 42% implied probability on that threshold. Persistent Pacific high pressure supports typical mid-August warmth across the Kanto region, with urban heat island effects and high humidity amplifying daytime peaks, while model guidance shows limited day-to-day variability amid mostly cloudy conditions. Historical baselines place normal highs around 31.2°C, yet current short-range runs favor readings clustered near 30–32°C. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble model consensus expected over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data releases that could shift trader positioning on these narrow temperature bands.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,810结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo position maximum temperatures near 31°C on August 18 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market's 42% implied probability on that threshold. Persistent Pacific high pressure supports typical mid-August warmth across the Kanto region, with urban heat island effects and high humidity amplifying daytime peaks, while model guidance shows limited day-to-day variability amid mostly cloudy conditions. Historical baselines place normal highs around 31.2°C, yet current short-range runs favor readings clustered near 30–32°C. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble model consensus expected over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data releases that could shift trader positioning on these narrow temperature bands.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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