With forecast models showing closely matched probabilities for a high of 31–33 °C in Chengdu on August 16, trader sentiment reflects the typical ensemble spread in 48-hour numerical weather predictions for the Sichuan Basin. Regional guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate modest differences in predicted subsidence strength under the western Pacific subtropical high, boundary-layer moisture, and daytime cloud cover that can shift maximum temperatures by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and local terrain further amplify small-scale variability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日成都气温最高？
8月16日成都气温最高？
32°C 22%
31°C 21%
33°C 21%
34°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
25°C or below
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
12%
31°C
21%
32°C
22%
33°C
21%
34°C
14%
35°C or higher
12%
32°C 22%
31°C 21%
33°C 21%
34°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
25°C or below
$472 交易量
1%
26°C
$1,034 交易量
<1%
27°C
$467 交易量
2%
28°C
$453 交易量
3%
29°C
$97 交易量
4%
30°C
$84 交易量
12%
31°C
$52 交易量
21%
32°C
$51 交易量
22%
33°C
$20 交易量
21%
34°C
$20 交易量
14%
35°C or higher
$343 交易量
12%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.With forecast models showing closely matched probabilities for a high of 31–33 °C in Chengdu on August 16, trader sentiment reflects the typical ensemble spread in 48-hour numerical weather predictions for the Sichuan Basin. Regional guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate modest differences in predicted subsidence strength under the western Pacific subtropical high, boundary-layer moisture, and daytime cloud cover that can shift maximum temperatures by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and local terrain further amplify small-scale variability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$3,093结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.With forecast models showing closely matched probabilities for a high of 31–33 °C in Chengdu on August 16, trader sentiment reflects the typical ensemble spread in 48-hour numerical weather predictions for the Sichuan Basin. Regional guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate modest differences in predicted subsidence strength under the western Pacific subtropical high, boundary-layer moisture, and daytime cloud cover that can shift maximum temperatures by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and local terrain further amplify small-scale variability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,093结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETWith forecast models showing closely matched probabilities for a high of 31–33 °C in Chengdu on August 16, trader sentiment reflects the typical ensemble spread in 48-hour numerical weather predictions for the Sichuan Basin. Regional guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate modest differences in predicted subsidence strength under the western Pacific subtropical high, boundary-layer moisture, and daytime cloud cover that can shift maximum temperatures by 1–2 °C. Urban heat-island effects and local terrain further amplify small-scale variability. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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