Forecast models from sources including the ECMWF and national meteorological agencies indicate a warm air mass advecting into central Poland, with Warsaw likely reaching a daytime maximum near 29–31 °C on August 16 under mostly sunny conditions and light westerly flow. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects modest ensemble spread in boundary-layer heating and the precise timing of any diurnal cloud build-up or subtle frontal influences that could cap or enhance surface temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical August maxima average 23–24 °C, so current guidance represents a notable positive anomaly driven by subsidence and reduced cloud cover; updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will determine final resolution within the narrow 28–32 °C window.