Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a maximum of 29°C for Tokyo on August 15 under cloudy skies with scattered showers, aligning with the market's near-even split between 29°C and 30°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology features typical highs near 31°C amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect, but reduced insolation from cloud cover and potential precipitation timing introduce uncertainty that can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C. Model consensus on steering patterns and moisture advection supports this range, with any clearer afternoon windows potentially pushing toward 30°C. Updated guidance ahead of the weekend will refine these thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月15日东京气温最高？
8月15日东京气温最高？
29°C 38%
30°C 31%
28°C 14%
31°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
14%
29°C
38%
30°C
31%
31°C
10%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
29°C 38%
30°C 31%
28°C 14%
31°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
24°C or below
$100 交易量
<1%
25°C
$34 交易量
1%
26°C
$30 交易量
1%
27°C
$29 交易量
6%
28°C
$41 交易量
14%
29°C
$2,054 交易量
38%
30°C
$112 交易量
31%
31°C
$35 交易量
10%
32°C
$31 交易量
3%
33°C
$24 交易量
2%
34°C or higher
$44 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a maximum of 29°C for Tokyo on August 15 under cloudy skies with scattered showers, aligning with the market's near-even split between 29°C and 30°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology features typical highs near 31°C amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect, but reduced insolation from cloud cover and potential precipitation timing introduce uncertainty that can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C. Model consensus on steering patterns and moisture advection supports this range, with any clearer afternoon windows potentially pushing toward 30°C. Updated guidance ahead of the weekend will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$2,535结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a maximum of 29°C for Tokyo on August 15 under cloudy skies with scattered showers, aligning with the market's near-even split between 29°C and 30°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology features typical highs near 31°C amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect, but reduced insolation from cloud cover and potential precipitation timing introduce uncertainty that can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C. Model consensus on steering patterns and moisture advection supports this range, with any clearer afternoon windows potentially pushing toward 30°C. Updated guidance ahead of the weekend will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,535结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a maximum of 29°C for Tokyo on August 15 under cloudy skies with scattered showers, aligning with the market's near-even split between 29°C and 30°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology features typical highs near 31°C amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect, but reduced insolation from cloud cover and potential precipitation timing introduce uncertainty that can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C. Model consensus on steering patterns and moisture advection supports this range, with any clearer afternoon windows potentially pushing toward 30°C. Updated guidance ahead of the weekend will refine these thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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