Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon, reinforced by an active 2026 Pacific typhoon season, keeps Metro Manila under frequent cloud cover and scattered to widespread thunderstorms through mid-August. Official PAGASA guidance for August 15 projects a 25–33 °C range with 90–100 % rain probability, while ensemble models show modest spread in daytime heating tied to the timing and intensity of convective bursts. In this regime, maximum temperature hinges on brief windows of reduced cloudiness: sustained downpours and thick stratiform decks limit peaks near 30 °C or lower, whereas partial clearing allows insolation to push readings to 32–34 °C. With resolution only 48 hours away and model guidance still diverging on rainfall timing, trader odds remain evenly balanced across the 25–35 °C+ ladder.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月15日马尼拉气温最高？
8月15日马尼拉气温最高？
31°C 24%
30°C 23%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
25°C或以下
<1%
26°C
5%
27°C
<1%
28°C
9%
29°C
15%
30°C
23%
31°C
24%
32°C
22%
33°C
11%
34°C
1%
35°C或更高
1%
31°C 24%
30°C 23%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
25°C或以下
$44 交易量
<1%
26°C
$44 交易量
5%
27°C
$22 交易量
<1%
28°C
$8 交易量
9%
29°C
$0 交易量
15%
30°C
$0 交易量
23%
31°C
$0 交易量
24%
32°C
$0 交易量
22%
33°C
$0 交易量
11%
34°C
$22 交易量
1%
35°C或更高
$22 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon, reinforced by an active 2026 Pacific typhoon season, keeps Metro Manila under frequent cloud cover and scattered to widespread thunderstorms through mid-August. Official PAGASA guidance for August 15 projects a 25–33 °C range with 90–100 % rain probability, while ensemble models show modest spread in daytime heating tied to the timing and intensity of convective bursts. In this regime, maximum temperature hinges on brief windows of reduced cloudiness: sustained downpours and thick stratiform decks limit peaks near 30 °C or lower, whereas partial clearing allows insolation to push readings to 32–34 °C. With resolution only 48 hours away and model guidance still diverging on rainfall timing, trader odds remain evenly balanced across the 25–35 °C+ ladder.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$161结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon, reinforced by an active 2026 Pacific typhoon season, keeps Metro Manila under frequent cloud cover and scattered to widespread thunderstorms through mid-August. Official PAGASA guidance for August 15 projects a 25–33 °C range with 90–100 % rain probability, while ensemble models show modest spread in daytime heating tied to the timing and intensity of convective bursts. In this regime, maximum temperature hinges on brief windows of reduced cloudiness: sustained downpours and thick stratiform decks limit peaks near 30 °C or lower, whereas partial clearing allows insolation to push readings to 32–34 °C. With resolution only 48 hours away and model guidance still diverging on rainfall timing, trader odds remain evenly balanced across the 25–35 °C+ ladder.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$161结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETPersistent southwest monsoon activity over Luzon, reinforced by an active 2026 Pacific typhoon season, keeps Metro Manila under frequent cloud cover and scattered to widespread thunderstorms through mid-August. Official PAGASA guidance for August 15 projects a 25–33 °C range with 90–100 % rain probability, while ensemble models show modest spread in daytime heating tied to the timing and intensity of convective bursts. In this regime, maximum temperature hinges on brief windows of reduced cloudiness: sustained downpours and thick stratiform decks limit peaks near 30 °C or lower, whereas partial clearing allows insolation to push readings to 32–34 °C. With resolution only 48 hours away and model guidance still diverging on rainfall timing, trader odds remain evenly balanced across the 25–35 °C+ ladder.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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