National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project a San Francisco high near 71°F on August 12, with the 70–71°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 42.5% as traders incorporate the moderating effects of a persistent marine layer and steady onshore flow from the cool Pacific. This coastal pattern, typical for mid-August when average highs hover around 69–70°F, caps afternoon warming and favors a narrow cluster of outcomes between 68–73°F. Recent model runs show the marine layer remaining 1,500–2,000 feet deep, suppressing temperatures below seasonal peaks while ruling out extremes above 75°F or below 66°F given current steering patterns and lack of offshore flow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月12日旧金山气温最高？
8月12日旧金山气温最高？
70-71°F 43%
68-69°F 26%
72-73°F 21%
66-67°F 7%
最新
$17,037 交易量
最新
$17,037 交易量
2026-08-12
63°F或更低
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
43%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F或更高
<1%
70-71°F 43%
68-69°F 26%
72-73°F 21%
66-67°F 7%
最新
$17,037 交易量
最新
$17,037 交易量
2026-08-12
63°F或更低
$417 交易量
1%
64-65°F
$1,256 交易量
1%
66-67°F
$1,040 交易量
7%
68-69°F
$2,907 交易量
26%
70-71°F
$3,963 交易量
43%
72-73°F
$1,260 交易量
21%
74-75°F
$1,201 交易量
4%
76-77°F
$2,289 交易量
<1%
78-79°F
$1,937 交易量
<1%
80-81°F
$381 交易量
<1%
82°F或更高
$386 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project a San Francisco high near 71°F on August 12, with the 70–71°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 42.5% as traders incorporate the moderating effects of a persistent marine layer and steady onshore flow from the cool Pacific. This coastal pattern, typical for mid-August when average highs hover around 69–70°F, caps afternoon warming and favors a narrow cluster of outcomes between 68–73°F. Recent model runs show the marine layer remaining 1,500–2,000 feet deep, suppressing temperatures below seasonal peaks while ruling out extremes above 75°F or below 66°F given current steering patterns and lack of offshore flow.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
交易量
$17,037结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project a San Francisco high near 71°F on August 12, with the 70–71°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 42.5% as traders incorporate the moderating effects of a persistent marine layer and steady onshore flow from the cool Pacific. This coastal pattern, typical for mid-August when average highs hover around 69–70°F, caps afternoon warming and favors a narrow cluster of outcomes between 68–73°F. Recent model runs show the marine layer remaining 1,500–2,000 feet deep, suppressing temperatures below seasonal peaks while ruling out extremes above 75°F or below 66°F given current steering patterns and lack of offshore flow.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$17,037结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETNational Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project a San Francisco high near 71°F on August 12, with the 70–71°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 42.5% as traders incorporate the moderating effects of a persistent marine layer and steady onshore flow from the cool Pacific. This coastal pattern, typical for mid-August when average highs hover around 69–70°F, caps afternoon warming and favors a narrow cluster of outcomes between 68–73°F. Recent model runs show the marine layer remaining 1,500–2,000 feet deep, suppressing temperatures below seasonal peaks while ruling out extremes above 75°F or below 66°F given current steering patterns and lack of offshore flow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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