Current National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for San Francisco on August 14 centers on a daily maximum in the mid-to-upper 60s, with the marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific as the dominant controls suppressing peak warming. Model consensus aligns with August climatology, where average highs near 68–70°F are frequently tempered by coastal fog and boundary-layer mixing, splitting trader probabilities between the 66–67°F and 68–69°F bins. Small variations in afternoon clearing timing or wind strength introduce the main uncertainty, keeping lower-probability outcomes for 70°F-plus or sub-65°F readings firmly in the minority. Updated model runs and official forecasts through the evening of August 13 remain the key near-term drivers for any shifts in implied odds.