National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models from NOAA project a highest temperature in New York City on August 15 near 84°F under mostly sunny conditions with light northerly winds, driving the 47% market-implied probability for the 84-85°F bin. This aligns with Central Park climatology of an 83°F August average high while reflecting the Climate Prediction Center’s broader warmer-than-normal August outlook. Secondary factors include modest model consensus on limited afternoon cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap peaks at 82-83°F (25.5% odds) or allow brief clearing to 86-87°F (14%). Recent stability in guidance has kept extreme bins below 2% combined, as no tropical moisture or strong ridging is expected to push readings higher.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于纽约市8月15日的最高温度？
纽约市8月15日的最高温度？
84-85°F 46%
82-83°F 35%
86-87°F 11%
80-81°F 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
35%
84-85°F
46%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 46%
82-83°F 35%
86-87°F 11%
80-81°F 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
75°F or below
$329 交易量
<1%
76-77°F
$196 交易量
1%
78-79°F
$140 交易量
2%
80-81°F
$372 交易量
7%
82-83°F
$643 交易量
35%
84-85°F
$555 交易量
46%
86-87°F
$176 交易量
11%
88-89°F
$167 交易量
3%
90-91°F
$158 交易量
2%
92-93°F
$99 交易量
<1%
94°F or higher
$293 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models from NOAA project a highest temperature in New York City on August 15 near 84°F under mostly sunny conditions with light northerly winds, driving the 47% market-implied probability for the 84-85°F bin. This aligns with Central Park climatology of an 83°F August average high while reflecting the Climate Prediction Center’s broader warmer-than-normal August outlook. Secondary factors include modest model consensus on limited afternoon cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap peaks at 82-83°F (25.5% odds) or allow brief clearing to 86-87°F (14%). Recent stability in guidance has kept extreme bins below 2% combined, as no tropical moisture or strong ridging is expected to push readings higher.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$3,128结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models from NOAA project a highest temperature in New York City on August 15 near 84°F under mostly sunny conditions with light northerly winds, driving the 47% market-implied probability for the 84-85°F bin. This aligns with Central Park climatology of an 83°F August average high while reflecting the Climate Prediction Center’s broader warmer-than-normal August outlook. Secondary factors include modest model consensus on limited afternoon cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap peaks at 82-83°F (25.5% odds) or allow brief clearing to 86-87°F (14%). Recent stability in guidance has kept extreme bins below 2% combined, as no tropical moisture or strong ridging is expected to push readings higher.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,128结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETNational Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models from NOAA project a highest temperature in New York City on August 15 near 84°F under mostly sunny conditions with light northerly winds, driving the 47% market-implied probability for the 84-85°F bin. This aligns with Central Park climatology of an 83°F August average high while reflecting the Climate Prediction Center’s broader warmer-than-normal August outlook. Secondary factors include modest model consensus on limited afternoon cloud cover or isolated showers that could cap peaks at 82-83°F (25.5% odds) or allow brief clearing to 86-87°F (14%). Recent stability in guidance has kept extreme bins below 2% combined, as no tropical moisture or strong ridging is expected to push readings higher.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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