Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward mild highs of 18-20°C in Madrid on March 27, with 19°C leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight race. These models project a high-pressure ridge over Iberia funneling warm Atlantic air, boosting temperatures 2-3°C above the late-March climatological average of ~17°C from AEMET historical data. Differentiation stems from model spread: ECMWF's deterministic run peaks near 19.5°C under clearer skies, while GFS variants dip to 18°C with potential afternoon clouds; 20°C+ odds lag due to capped 850hPa temperatures (~10°C). Uncertainty persists ahead of 12Z updates, as urban heat islands and sea breezes could nudge extremes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?
19°C 32%
18°C 28%
20°C 22%
21°C 14%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
5%
17°C
7%
18°C
28%
19°C
32%
20°C
23%
21°C
14%
22°C or higher
8%
19°C 32%
18°C 28%
20°C 22%
21°C 14%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
5%
17°C
7%
18°C
28%
19°C
32%
20°C
23%
21°C
14%
22°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward mild highs of 18-20°C in Madrid on March 27, with 19°C leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight race. These models project a high-pressure ridge over Iberia funneling warm Atlantic air, boosting temperatures 2-3°C above the late-March climatological average of ~17°C from AEMET historical data. Differentiation stems from model spread: ECMWF's deterministic run peaks near 19.5°C under clearer skies, while GFS variants dip to 18°C with potential afternoon clouds; 20°C+ odds lag due to capped 850hPa temperatures (~10°C). Uncertainty persists ahead of 12Z updates, as urban heat islands and sea breezes could nudge extremes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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