Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including extended models from AccuWeather and European agencies, indicate a warm air mass over southern Germany with daytime highs for Munich on August 4 projected between 34–36°C under mostly sunny conditions and light westerly winds. These temperatures exceed the long-term August average of roughly 23–25°C due to seasonal solar insolation combined with minimal cloud cover and potential subsidence from high pressure. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38.5% implied probability for 35°C and 27.5% for 36°C, aligns with this ensemble guidance while accounting for typical model spread and the possibility of localized convection reducing peak values. Updated short-range runs closer to the date will refine whether maximums reach the upper or lower end of the current range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月4日慕尼黑气温最高？
8月4日慕尼黑气温最高？
35°C 35%
36°C 28%
37°C 18%
34°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C
18%
35°C
35%
36°C
28%
37°C
18%
38°C
5%
39°C
2%
40°C or higher
2%
35°C 35%
36°C 28%
37°C 18%
34°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
30°C or below
$440 交易量
<1%
31°C
$62 交易量
1%
32°C
$42 交易量
4%
33°C
$83 交易量
2%
34°C
$374 交易量
18%
35°C
$441 交易量
35%
36°C
$165 交易量
28%
37°C
$131 交易量
18%
38°C
$103 交易量
5%
39°C
$32 交易量
2%
40°C or higher
$15 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including extended models from AccuWeather and European agencies, indicate a warm air mass over southern Germany with daytime highs for Munich on August 4 projected between 34–36°C under mostly sunny conditions and light westerly winds. These temperatures exceed the long-term August average of roughly 23–25°C due to seasonal solar insolation combined with minimal cloud cover and potential subsidence from high pressure. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38.5% implied probability for 35°C and 27.5% for 36°C, aligns with this ensemble guidance while accounting for typical model spread and the possibility of localized convection reducing peak values. Updated short-range runs closer to the date will refine whether maximums reach the upper or lower end of the current range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,887结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including extended models from AccuWeather and European agencies, indicate a warm air mass over southern Germany with daytime highs for Munich on August 4 projected between 34–36°C under mostly sunny conditions and light westerly winds. These temperatures exceed the long-term August average of roughly 23–25°C due to seasonal solar insolation combined with minimal cloud cover and potential subsidence from high pressure. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38.5% implied probability for 35°C and 27.5% for 36°C, aligns with this ensemble guidance while accounting for typical model spread and the possibility of localized convection reducing peak values. Updated short-range runs closer to the date will refine whether maximums reach the upper or lower end of the current range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,887结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including extended models from AccuWeather and European agencies, indicate a warm air mass over southern Germany with daytime highs for Munich on August 4 projected between 34–36°C under mostly sunny conditions and light westerly winds. These temperatures exceed the long-term August average of roughly 23–25°C due to seasonal solar insolation combined with minimal cloud cover and potential subsidence from high pressure. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38.5% implied probability for 35°C and 27.5% for 36°C, aligns with this ensemble guidance while accounting for typical model spread and the possibility of localized convection reducing peak values. Updated short-range runs closer to the date will refine whether maximums reach the upper or lower end of the current range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题