The National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast models, including the Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles, project a high temperature of 62-68°F at Central Park observatory in New York City on April 4, driving trader consensus to 98.8% implied probability for 58°F or higher. This positioning reflects a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow after early-week variability, with above-normal temperatures favored per NOAA's 8-14 day outlook amid neutral ENSO conditions. Model agreement is strong, with minimal spread below 58°F. Realistic challenges include morning showers lingering into midday, enhancing cloud cover and capping highs near 57°F, or an unanticipated northward surge of cooler maritime air; updated NWS guidance expected by evening could refine this.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
58°F or higher 98.4%
56-57°F 1.1%
48-49°F <1%
39°F or below <1%
$113,490 交易量
$113,490 交易量
2026-04-04
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58°F or higher
98%
58°F or higher 98.4%
56-57°F 1.1%
48-49°F <1%
39°F or below <1%
$113,490 交易量
$113,490 交易量
2026-04-04
39°F or below
$15,182 交易量
<1%
40-41°F
$11,930 交易量
<1%
42-43°F
$8,181 交易量
<1%
44-45°F
$8,342 交易量
<1%
46-47°F
$7,930 交易量
<1%
48-49°F
$11,080 交易量
<1%
50-51°F
$12,251 交易量
<1%
52-53°F
$8,956 交易量
<1%
54-55°F
$7,726 交易量
<1%
56-57°F
$8,245 交易量
1%
58°F or higher
$13,703 交易量
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast models, including the Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles, project a high temperature of 62-68°F at Central Park observatory in New York City on April 4, driving trader consensus to 98.8% implied probability for 58°F or higher. This positioning reflects a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow after early-week variability, with above-normal temperatures favored per NOAA's 8-14 day outlook amid neutral ENSO conditions. Model agreement is strong, with minimal spread below 58°F. Realistic challenges include morning showers lingering into midday, enhancing cloud cover and capping highs near 57°F, or an unanticipated northward surge of cooler maritime air; updated NWS guidance expected by evening could refine this.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
交易量
$113,490结束日期
2026-04-04市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast models, including the Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles, project a high temperature of 62-68°F at Central Park observatory in New York City on April 4, driving trader consensus to 98.8% implied probability for 58°F or higher. This positioning reflects a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow after early-week variability, with above-normal temperatures favored per NOAA's 8-14 day outlook amid neutral ENSO conditions. Model agreement is strong, with minimal spread below 58°F. Realistic challenges include morning showers lingering into midday, enhancing cloud cover and capping highs near 57°F, or an unanticipated northward surge of cooler maritime air; updated NWS guidance expected by evening could refine this.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$113,490结束日期
2026-04-04市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ETThe National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast models, including the Global Forecast System and European Centre ensembles, project a high temperature of 62-68°F at Central Park observatory in New York City on April 4, driving trader consensus to 98.8% implied probability for 58°F or higher. This positioning reflects a dominant high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly flow after early-week variability, with above-normal temperatures favored per NOAA's 8-14 day outlook amid neutral ENSO conditions. Model agreement is strong, with minimal spread below 58°F. Realistic challenges include morning showers lingering into midday, enhancing cloud cover and capping highs near 57°F, or an unanticipated northward surge of cooler maritime air; updated NWS guidance expected by evening could refine this.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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