Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and models indicate a high near 67–68°F for San Francisco on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 68–71°F outcomes. A deep marine layer and cooler-than-normal 850 mb temperatures near 42°F have suppressed daytime heating through early September, producing persistent onshore flow, cloud cover, and light drizzle that limit warming. Historical September 4 averages hover near 70°F, but the current pattern favors readings in the upper 60s to low 70s absent significant clearing or offshore flow shifts. Traders appear to price in model consensus for modest afternoon recovery if skies partially break, while low probabilities for extremes reflect the low likelihood of strong ridging or marine-layer erosion before the observation window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日旧金山气温最高？
9月4日旧金山气温最高？
70-71°F 41%
68-69°F 28%
74-75°F 19%
66-67华氏度 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
61华氏度或以下
1%
62-63°F
6%
64-65华氏度
8%
66-67华氏度
11%
68-69°F
28%
70-71°F
41%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
19%
76-77华氏度
9%
78-79°F
3%
80°F或更高
3%
70-71°F 41%
68-69°F 28%
74-75°F 19%
66-67华氏度 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
61华氏度或以下
$0 交易量
1%
62-63°F
$0 交易量
6%
64-65华氏度
$20 交易量
8%
66-67华氏度
$124 交易量
11%
68-69°F
$7 交易量
28%
70-71°F
$29 交易量
41%
72-73°F
$60 交易量
10%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
19%
76-77华氏度
$0 交易量
9%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
3%
80°F或更高
$0 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and models indicate a high near 67–68°F for San Francisco on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 68–71°F outcomes. A deep marine layer and cooler-than-normal 850 mb temperatures near 42°F have suppressed daytime heating through early September, producing persistent onshore flow, cloud cover, and light drizzle that limit warming. Historical September 4 averages hover near 70°F, but the current pattern favors readings in the upper 60s to low 70s absent significant clearing or offshore flow shifts. Traders appear to price in model consensus for modest afternoon recovery if skies partially break, while low probabilities for extremes reflect the low likelihood of strong ridging or marine-layer erosion before the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
交易量
$240结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 7:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and models indicate a high near 67–68°F for San Francisco on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 68–71°F outcomes. A deep marine layer and cooler-than-normal 850 mb temperatures near 42°F have suppressed daytime heating through early September, producing persistent onshore flow, cloud cover, and light drizzle that limit warming. Historical September 4 averages hover near 70°F, but the current pattern favors readings in the upper 60s to low 70s absent significant clearing or offshore flow shifts. Traders appear to price in model consensus for modest afternoon recovery if skies partially break, while low probabilities for extremes reflect the low likelihood of strong ridging or marine-layer erosion before the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$240结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 7:56 AM ETRecent forecasts from the National Weather Service and models indicate a high near 67–68°F for San Francisco on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 68–71°F outcomes. A deep marine layer and cooler-than-normal 850 mb temperatures near 42°F have suppressed daytime heating through early September, producing persistent onshore flow, cloud cover, and light drizzle that limit warming. Historical September 4 averages hover near 70°F, but the current pattern favors readings in the upper 60s to low 70s absent significant clearing or offshore flow shifts. Traders appear to price in model consensus for modest afternoon recovery if skies partially break, while low probabilities for extremes reflect the low likelihood of strong ridging or marine-layer erosion before the observation window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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