Recent model consensus from official monitoring indicates Shanghai's September 25 maximum will likely reach 31°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 49% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent high humidity near 60-75% and minimal wind shear have limited nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s and allowing daytime insolation to push peaks into the low 30s, consistent with the 22.5% odds on 32°C and 26% on 30°C. Recent days of stable subtropical conditions without incoming fronts or significant precipitation have reinforced this narrow range, while the 7.5% probabilities on 29°C or 33°C reflect minor model spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月25日上海气温最高？
9月25日上海气温最高？
31°C 47%
32°C 25%
30°C 23%
28°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-25
27°C或以下
<1%
28°C
7%
29°C
5%
30°C
23%
31°C
47%
32°C
25%
33°C
4%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C或更高
<1%
31°C 47%
32°C 25%
30°C 23%
28°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-25
27°C或以下
$69 交易量
<1%
28°C
$0 交易量
7%
29°C
$129 交易量
5%
30°C
$172 交易量
23%
31°C
$168 交易量
47%
32°C
$344 交易量
25%
33°C
$126 交易量
4%
34°C
$5 交易量
4%
35°C
$0 交易量
2%
36°C
$0 交易量
1%
37°C或更高
$119 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from official monitoring indicates Shanghai's September 25 maximum will likely reach 31°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 49% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent high humidity near 60-75% and minimal wind shear have limited nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s and allowing daytime insolation to push peaks into the low 30s, consistent with the 22.5% odds on 32°C and 26% on 30°C. Recent days of stable subtropical conditions without incoming fronts or significant precipitation have reinforced this narrow range, while the 7.5% probabilities on 29°C or 33°C reflect minor model spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,118结束日期
2026-09-25市场开放时间
Sep 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from official monitoring indicates Shanghai's September 25 maximum will likely reach 31°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 49% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent high humidity near 60-75% and minimal wind shear have limited nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s and allowing daytime insolation to push peaks into the low 30s, consistent with the 22.5% odds on 32°C and 26% on 30°C. Recent days of stable subtropical conditions without incoming fronts or significant precipitation have reinforced this narrow range, while the 7.5% probabilities on 29°C or 33°C reflect minor model spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,118结束日期
2026-09-25市场开放时间
Sep 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent model consensus from official monitoring indicates Shanghai's September 25 maximum will likely reach 31°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, supporting the market's leading 49% implied probability for that exact outcome. Persistent high humidity near 60-75% and minimal wind shear have limited nocturnal cooling, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s and allowing daytime insolation to push peaks into the low 30s, consistent with the 22.5% odds on 32°C and 26% on 30°C. Recent days of stable subtropical conditions without incoming fronts or significant precipitation have reinforced this narrow range, while the 7.5% probabilities on 29°C or 33°C reflect minor model spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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