Historic U.S.-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon on April 14-15 marked the first in over three decades, yielding agreement for formal peace negotiations centered on Hezbollah disarmament and reduced Iranian influence, amid the fragile US-Iran ceasefire that Israel insists excludes Lebanon. Yet no official ceasefire—defined as a publicly announced mutual halt to hostilities—emerged, with Israeli airstrikes continuing in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah rocket fire into northern Israel persisting post-talks. Israel's security cabinet is now deliberating a potential truce as President Trump urges leader-level discussions, but sticking points like enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire terms and Hezbollah's demands for comprehensive de-escalation sustain uncertainty, driving trader bets toward mid-2026 timelines over imminent resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,571,394 交易量
2026-04-30
4月30日
61%
6月30日
79%
$11,571,394 交易量
4月30日
$2,974,813 交易量
61%
6月30日
$395,417 交易量
79%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Historic U.S.-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon on April 14-15 marked the first in over three decades, yielding agreement for formal peace negotiations centered on Hezbollah disarmament and reduced Iranian influence, amid the fragile US-Iran ceasefire that Israel insists excludes Lebanon. Yet no official ceasefire—defined as a publicly announced mutual halt to hostilities—emerged, with Israeli airstrikes continuing in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah rocket fire into northern Israel persisting post-talks. Israel's security cabinet is now deliberating a potential truce as President Trump urges leader-level discussions, but sticking points like enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire terms and Hezbollah's demands for comprehensive de-escalation sustain uncertainty, driving trader bets toward mid-2026 timelines over imminent resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
交易量
$11,571,394结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Historic U.S.-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon on April 14-15 marked the first in over three decades, yielding agreement for formal peace negotiations centered on Hezbollah disarmament and reduced Iranian influence, amid the fragile US-Iran ceasefire that Israel insists excludes Lebanon. Yet no official ceasefire—defined as a publicly announced mutual halt to hostilities—emerged, with Israeli airstrikes continuing in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah rocket fire into northern Israel persisting post-talks. Israel's security cabinet is now deliberating a potential truce as President Trump urges leader-level discussions, but sticking points like enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire terms and Hezbollah's demands for comprehensive de-escalation sustain uncertainty, driving trader bets toward mid-2026 timelines over imminent resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$11,571,394结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Historic U.S.-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon on April 14-15 marked the first in over three decades, yielding agreement for formal peace negotiations centered on Hezbollah disarmament and reduced Iranian influence, amid the fragile US-Iran ceasefire that Israel insists excludes Lebanon. Yet no official ceasefire—defined as a publicly announced mutual halt to hostilities—emerged, with Israeli airstrikes continuing in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah rocket fire into northern Israel persisting post-talks. Israel's security cabinet is now deliberating a potential truce as President Trump urges leader-level discussions, but sticking points like enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire terms and Hezbollah's demands for comprehensive de-escalation sustain uncertainty, driving trader bets toward mid-2026 timelines over imminent resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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