Forecast models from Chinese meteorological agencies project a minimum temperature near 20°C in Jinan on September 22 under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds, favoring moderate overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs around 30°C. The near-even market split between 12°C-or-below and 22°C-or-higher outcomes reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions, where slight increases in humidity, variable wind speeds, or thin high clouds could limit cooling and keep readings above 22°C, while clearer, calmer air might allow deeper drops. Specific mid-range bins around 15–21°C capture the consensus central tendency. Updated model runs and official observations from the China Meteorological Administration on the night of September 21–22 will likely resolve the tight probabilities before resolution.