**Current forecasts from multiple models (GFS, regional sources) indicate a minimum temperature for Moscow on September 3 near 13–15°C, with daytime highs around 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly winds.** This places the likely daily low in the 12–16°C band, aligning with mid-range market options around 26% each while leaving the 45.5% odds on 8°C or below and 44.5% on 18°C or higher reflecting model-spread uncertainty and recent volatility in trader positioning. Key differentiating factors include air-mass origin and boundary-layer processes. Southerly or southwesterly flow advects milder maritime air, supporting overnight lows near 14–16°C; a northerly shift would introduce cooler continental air and potentially drop minima several degrees. Cloud cover and any light rain reduce the diurnal range by limiting radiational cooling at night while capping daytime peaks. Historical early-September baselines for Moscow hover near 14–16°C lows, so current guidance sits close to climatology but with modest cooling expected after the warm start to the month. Upcoming model runs and official updates from the Hydrometeorological Center will clarify steering patterns and any late adjustments to the minimum, which directly affects resolution of the closely matched leading outcomes. Traders appear to be pricing in residual forecast dispersion rather than a strong consensus on extremes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月3日莫斯科最低气温？
9月3日莫斯科最低气温？
8°C or below 89%
18°C or higher 87%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
8°C or below
89%
9°C
26%
10°C
27%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
50%
16°C
50%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
87%
8°C or below 89%
18°C or higher 87%
15°C 50%
16°C 50%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
8°C or below
$5 交易量
89%
9°C
$25 交易量
26%
10°C
$0 交易量
27%
11°C
$0 交易量
27%
12°C
$0 交易量
27%
13°C
$0 交易量
27%
14°C
$0 交易量
26%
15°C
$5 交易量
50%
16°C
$16 交易量
50%
17°C
$5 交易量
3%
18°C or higher
$5 交易量
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models (GFS, regional sources) indicate a minimum temperature for Moscow on September 3 near 13–15°C, with daytime highs around 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly winds.** This places the likely daily low in the 12–16°C band, aligning with mid-range market options around 26% each while leaving the 45.5% odds on 8°C or below and 44.5% on 18°C or higher reflecting model-spread uncertainty and recent volatility in trader positioning.
Key differentiating factors include air-mass origin and boundary-layer processes. Southerly or southwesterly flow advects milder maritime air, supporting overnight lows near 14–16°C; a northerly shift would introduce cooler continental air and potentially drop minima several degrees. Cloud cover and any light rain reduce the diurnal range by limiting radiational cooling at night while capping daytime peaks. Historical early-September baselines for Moscow hover near 14–16°C lows, so current guidance sits close to climatology but with modest cooling expected after the warm start to the month.
Upcoming model runs and official updates from the Hydrometeorological Center will clarify steering patterns and any late adjustments to the minimum, which directly affects resolution of the closely matched leading outcomes. Traders appear to be pricing in residual forecast dispersion rather than a strong consensus on extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$61结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models (GFS, regional sources) indicate a minimum temperature for Moscow on September 3 near 13–15°C, with daytime highs around 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly winds.** This places the likely daily low in the 12–16°C band, aligning with mid-range market options around 26% each while leaving the 45.5% odds on 8°C or below and 44.5% on 18°C or higher reflecting model-spread uncertainty and recent volatility in trader positioning.
Key differentiating factors include air-mass origin and boundary-layer processes. Southerly or southwesterly flow advects milder maritime air, supporting overnight lows near 14–16°C; a northerly shift would introduce cooler continental air and potentially drop minima several degrees. Cloud cover and any light rain reduce the diurnal range by limiting radiational cooling at night while capping daytime peaks. Historical early-September baselines for Moscow hover near 14–16°C lows, so current guidance sits close to climatology but with modest cooling expected after the warm start to the month.
Upcoming model runs and official updates from the Hydrometeorological Center will clarify steering patterns and any late adjustments to the minimum, which directly affects resolution of the closely matched leading outcomes. Traders appear to be pricing in residual forecast dispersion rather than a strong consensus on extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$61结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Current forecasts from multiple models (GFS, regional sources) indicate a minimum temperature for Moscow on September 3 near 13–15°C, with daytime highs around 18–20°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly winds.** This places the likely daily low in the 12–16°C band, aligning with mid-range market options around 26% each while leaving the 45.5% odds on 8°C or below and 44.5% on 18°C or higher reflecting model-spread uncertainty and recent volatility in trader positioning. Key differentiating factors include air-mass origin and boundary-layer processes. Southerly or southwesterly flow advects milder maritime air, supporting overnight lows near 14–16°C; a northerly shift would introduce cooler continental air and potentially drop minima several degrees. Cloud cover and any light rain reduce the diurnal range by limiting radiational cooling at night while capping daytime peaks. Historical early-September baselines for Moscow hover near 14–16°C lows, so current guidance sits close to climatology but with modest cooling expected after the warm start to the month. Upcoming model runs and official updates from the Hydrometeorological Center will clarify steering patterns and any late adjustments to the minimum, which directly affects resolution of the closely matched leading outcomes. Traders appear to be pricing in residual forecast dispersion rather than a strong consensus on extremes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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