Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a surge of cooler northerly air combined with clear skies favoring strong radiative cooling overnight, positioning Qingdao’s September 2 minimum at or below 16°C. This aligns with the market’s 99.6% implied probability for that outcome, as traders weigh model consensus against typical early-September climatology of roughly 19°C lows. Key variables include sustained northerly flow, dew-point spreads, and minimal cloud cover that enhance surface heat loss. The main resolution trigger remains official station observations once the calendar day closes; an unexpected warm advection or model error could still push the reading above 16°C, though current guidance shows limited scope for such reversal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月2日青岛最低气温？
9月2日青岛最低气温？
16°C or below 100.0%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$1,998 交易量
$1,998 交易量
2026-09-02
16°C or below
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
16°C or below 100.0%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$1,998 交易量
$1,998 交易量
2026-09-02
16°C or below
$1,640 交易量
Yes
17°C
$105 交易量
No
18°C
$53 交易量
No
19°C
$25 交易量
No
20°C
$25 交易量
No
21°C
$25 交易量
No
22°C
$25 交易量
No
23°C
$25 交易量
No
24°C
$25 交易量
No
25°C
$25 交易量
No
26°C or higher
$25 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a surge of cooler northerly air combined with clear skies favoring strong radiative cooling overnight, positioning Qingdao’s September 2 minimum at or below 16°C. This aligns with the market’s 99.6% implied probability for that outcome, as traders weigh model consensus against typical early-September climatology of roughly 19°C lows. Key variables include sustained northerly flow, dew-point spreads, and minimal cloud cover that enhance surface heat loss. The main resolution trigger remains official station observations once the calendar day closes; an unexpected warm advection or model error could still push the reading above 16°C, though current guidance shows limited scope for such reversal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
交易量
$1,998结束日期
2026-09-02市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 12:32 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
争议期
最终
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a surge of cooler northerly air combined with clear skies favoring strong radiative cooling overnight, positioning Qingdao’s September 2 minimum at or below 16°C. This aligns with the market’s 99.6% implied probability for that outcome, as traders weigh model consensus against typical early-September climatology of roughly 19°C lows. Key variables include sustained northerly flow, dew-point spreads, and minimal cloud cover that enhance surface heat loss. The main resolution trigger remains official station observations once the calendar day closes; an unexpected warm advection or model error could still push the reading above 16°C, though current guidance shows limited scope for such reversal.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,998结束日期
2026-09-02市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 12:32 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
争议期
最终
Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a surge of cooler northerly air combined with clear skies favoring strong radiative cooling overnight, positioning Qingdao’s September 2 minimum at or below 16°C. This aligns with the market’s 99.6% implied probability for that outcome, as traders weigh model consensus against typical early-September climatology of roughly 19°C lows. Key variables include sustained northerly flow, dew-point spreads, and minimal cloud cover that enhance surface heat loss. The main resolution trigger remains official station observations once the calendar day closes; an unexpected warm advection or model error could still push the reading above 16°C, though current guidance shows limited scope for such reversal.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题