**Recent typhoon activity and associated cloud cover and rainfall are the main near-term drivers shaping market-implied odds for Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 23.** A powerful typhoon (Dujuan/25号) tracked close to eastern Japan on September 20–21, delivering heavy rain, strong winds, and linear rain bands that elevated flood and landslide risks across the Kanto region including Tokyo. This system has left lingering overcast skies, elevated humidity, and suppressed daytime heating heading into the 23rd. Official and model guidance now converge on daytime highs of roughly 24–27 °C (76–81 °F) and overnight/early-morning lows of 21–22 °C (70–72 °F) under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain chances. These values align closely with the leading 22 °C outcome (47.5 % implied probability) and support the elevated odds on 21 °C and 23 °C bins. The 17 °C-or-below market (25.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty around post-storm cooling or localized heavy-rain effects that could pull the minimum lower, while the 27 °C-or-higher outcome (23.5 %) remains a long-shot tail risk requiring unexpectedly rapid clearing and warming. Climatologically, late-September Tokyo minima average near 19 °C, but the current disturbed pattern favors a slightly milder floor. Key upcoming updates include the next Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast runs and any revisions to steering flow or residual moisture, which traders will watch closely before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月23日东京最低气温？
9月23日东京最低气温？
17°C或以下 51%
22°C 51%
27°C或以上 47%
23°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-23
17°C或以下
51%
18°C
36%
19°C
36%
20°C
36%
21°C
22%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
36%
25°C
5%
26°C
5%
27°C或以上
47%
17°C或以下 51%
22°C 51%
27°C或以上 47%
23°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-23
17°C或以下
$20 交易量
51%
18°C
$0 交易量
36%
19°C
$0 交易量
36%
20°C
$0 交易量
36%
21°C
$0 交易量
22%
22°C
$26 交易量
39%
23°C
$0 交易量
39%
24°C
$0 交易量
36%
25°C
$0 交易量
5%
26°C
$0 交易量
5%
27°C或以上
$0 交易量
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent typhoon activity and associated cloud cover and rainfall are the main near-term drivers shaping market-implied odds for Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 23.** A powerful typhoon (Dujuan/25号) tracked close to eastern Japan on September 20–21, delivering heavy rain, strong winds, and linear rain bands that elevated flood and landslide risks across the Kanto region including Tokyo. This system has left lingering overcast skies, elevated humidity, and suppressed daytime heating heading into the 23rd.
Official and model guidance now converge on daytime highs of roughly 24–27 °C (76–81 °F) and overnight/early-morning lows of 21–22 °C (70–72 °F) under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain chances. These values align closely with the leading 22 °C outcome (47.5 % implied probability) and support the elevated odds on 21 °C and 23 °C bins. The 17 °C-or-below market (25.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty around post-storm cooling or localized heavy-rain effects that could pull the minimum lower, while the 27 °C-or-higher outcome (23.5 %) remains a long-shot tail risk requiring unexpectedly rapid clearing and warming.
Climatologically, late-September Tokyo minima average near 19 °C, but the current disturbed pattern favors a slightly milder floor. Key upcoming updates include the next Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast runs and any revisions to steering flow or residual moisture, which traders will watch closely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$46结束日期
2026-09-23市场开放时间
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent typhoon activity and associated cloud cover and rainfall are the main near-term drivers shaping market-implied odds for Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 23.** A powerful typhoon (Dujuan/25号) tracked close to eastern Japan on September 20–21, delivering heavy rain, strong winds, and linear rain bands that elevated flood and landslide risks across the Kanto region including Tokyo. This system has left lingering overcast skies, elevated humidity, and suppressed daytime heating heading into the 23rd.
Official and model guidance now converge on daytime highs of roughly 24–27 °C (76–81 °F) and overnight/early-morning lows of 21–22 °C (70–72 °F) under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain chances. These values align closely with the leading 22 °C outcome (47.5 % implied probability) and support the elevated odds on 21 °C and 23 °C bins. The 17 °C-or-below market (25.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty around post-storm cooling or localized heavy-rain effects that could pull the minimum lower, while the 27 °C-or-higher outcome (23.5 %) remains a long-shot tail risk requiring unexpectedly rapid clearing and warming.
Climatologically, late-September Tokyo minima average near 19 °C, but the current disturbed pattern favors a slightly milder floor. Key upcoming updates include the next Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast runs and any revisions to steering flow or residual moisture, which traders will watch closely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$46结束日期
2026-09-23市场开放时间
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Recent typhoon activity and associated cloud cover and rainfall are the main near-term drivers shaping market-implied odds for Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 23.** A powerful typhoon (Dujuan/25号) tracked close to eastern Japan on September 20–21, delivering heavy rain, strong winds, and linear rain bands that elevated flood and landslide risks across the Kanto region including Tokyo. This system has left lingering overcast skies, elevated humidity, and suppressed daytime heating heading into the 23rd. Official and model guidance now converge on daytime highs of roughly 24–27 °C (76–81 °F) and overnight/early-morning lows of 21–22 °C (70–72 °F) under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain chances. These values align closely with the leading 22 °C outcome (47.5 % implied probability) and support the elevated odds on 21 °C and 23 °C bins. The 17 °C-or-below market (25.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty around post-storm cooling or localized heavy-rain effects that could pull the minimum lower, while the 27 °C-or-higher outcome (23.5 %) remains a long-shot tail risk requiring unexpectedly rapid clearing and warming. Climatologically, late-September Tokyo minima average near 19 °C, but the current disturbed pattern favors a slightly milder floor. Key upcoming updates include the next Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast runs and any revisions to steering flow or residual moisture, which traders will watch closely before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题