Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a mild overnight minimum for Warsaw on September 18, with most runs clustering between 10–14 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This setup limits strong radiative cooling, as increased cloud cover and modest winds reduce the potential for sharp temperature drops compared with clear, calm conditions. Model spread remains notable, however, with some solutions allowing greater nocturnal cooling if skies clear more than expected, while others keep readings elevated amid lingering moisture. The near-even market-implied odds between sub-5 °C and 15 °C-plus outcomes reflect this uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and short-range guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any frontal passage or high-pressure influence over the next 48 hours.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月18日华沙最低气温？
9月18日华沙最低气温？
5°C或以下 100%
15°C或更高 98%
8°C 39%
9°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
5°C或以下
100%
6°C
21%
7°C
25%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
24%
14°C
32%
15°C或更高
98%
5°C或以下 100%
15°C或更高 98%
8°C 39%
9°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
5°C或以下
$0 交易量
100%
6°C
$0 交易量
21%
7°C
$0 交易量
25%
8°C
$0 交易量
39%
9°C
$0 交易量
39%
10°C
$0 交易量
39%
11°C
$0 交易量
39%
12°C
$0 交易量
39%
13°C
$0 交易量
24%
14°C
$0 交易量
32%
15°C或更高
$0 交易量
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a mild overnight minimum for Warsaw on September 18, with most runs clustering between 10–14 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This setup limits strong radiative cooling, as increased cloud cover and modest winds reduce the potential for sharp temperature drops compared with clear, calm conditions. Model spread remains notable, however, with some solutions allowing greater nocturnal cooling if skies clear more than expected, while others keep readings elevated amid lingering moisture. The near-even market-implied odds between sub-5 °C and 15 °C-plus outcomes reflect this uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and short-range guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any frontal passage or high-pressure influence over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a mild overnight minimum for Warsaw on September 18, with most runs clustering between 10–14 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This setup limits strong radiative cooling, as increased cloud cover and modest winds reduce the potential for sharp temperature drops compared with clear, calm conditions. Model spread remains notable, however, with some solutions allowing greater nocturnal cooling if skies clear more than expected, while others keep readings elevated amid lingering moisture. The near-even market-implied odds between sub-5 °C and 15 °C-plus outcomes reflect this uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and short-range guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any frontal passage or high-pressure influence over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate a mild overnight minimum for Warsaw on September 18, with most runs clustering between 10–14 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. This setup limits strong radiative cooling, as increased cloud cover and modest winds reduce the potential for sharp temperature drops compared with clear, calm conditions. Model spread remains notable, however, with some solutions allowing greater nocturnal cooling if skies clear more than expected, while others keep readings elevated amid lingering moisture. The near-even market-implied odds between sub-5 °C and 15 °C-plus outcomes reflect this uncertainty in boundary-layer processes and short-range guidance, with resolution hinging on the precise timing of any frontal passage or high-pressure influence over the next 48 hours.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题