North Korea's frequent missile tests amid heightened Korean Peninsula tensions drive the 65.5% implied probability for a launch by March 31, reflecting trader consensus on Pyongyang's provocative response patterns to US-South Korea Freedom Shield exercises. Recent developments include South Korea's detection of multiple short-range ballistic missile firings from near Pyongyang on March 19, state media boasts of new solid-fuel tech advancements, and Kim Jong Un's orders for expanded production. No confirmed tests have followed in the past 10 days, but historical near-monthly cadence—coupled with ongoing drills through April—supports elevated odds, though regime opacity introduces uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
市场开放时间： Mar 16, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
交易量
$8,343结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
交易量
$8,343结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...North Korea's frequent missile tests amid heightened Korean Peninsula tensions drive the 65.5% implied probability for a launch by March 31, reflecting trader consensus on Pyongyang's provocative response patterns to US-South Korea Freedom Shield exercises. Recent developments include South Korea's detection of multiple short-range ballistic missile firings from near Pyongyang on March 19, state media boasts of new solid-fuel tech advancements, and Kim Jong Un's orders for expanded production. No confirmed tests have followed in the past 10 days, but historical near-monthly cadence—coupled with ongoing drills through April—supports elevated odds, though regime opacity introduces uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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