Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek’s strong primary performance and Oregon’s established partisan lean have anchored trader consensus around an 86% probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. Recent polling shows a competitive general election matchup against Republican nominee Christine Drazan, with one June survey placing Drazan narrowly ahead and others indicating a near tie, prompting nonpartisan forecasters to adjust ratings from Solid Democratic to Likely or Lean Democratic. Drazan’s campaign has emphasized voter disapproval of Kotek while both candidates consolidated nominations following May primaries. The elevated Democratic odds align with historical patterns in the state and the structural advantages of incumbency, even as early indicators point to a narrower contest than in prior cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$36,121 交易量
$36,121 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
86%
共和党
15%
$36,121 交易量
$36,121 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$21,179 交易量
86%
共和党
$14,942 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek’s strong primary performance and Oregon’s established partisan lean have anchored trader consensus around an 86% probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. Recent polling shows a competitive general election matchup against Republican nominee Christine Drazan, with one June survey placing Drazan narrowly ahead and others indicating a near tie, prompting nonpartisan forecasters to adjust ratings from Solid Democratic to Likely or Lean Democratic. Drazan’s campaign has emphasized voter disapproval of Kotek while both candidates consolidated nominations following May primaries. The elevated Democratic odds align with historical patterns in the state and the structural advantages of incumbency, even as early indicators point to a narrower contest than in prior cycles.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$36,121结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek’s strong primary performance and Oregon’s established partisan lean have anchored trader consensus around an 86% probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. Recent polling shows a competitive general election matchup against Republican nominee Christine Drazan, with one June survey placing Drazan narrowly ahead and others indicating a near tie, prompting nonpartisan forecasters to adjust ratings from Solid Democratic to Likely or Lean Democratic. Drazan’s campaign has emphasized voter disapproval of Kotek while both candidates consolidated nominations following May primaries. The elevated Democratic odds align with historical patterns in the state and the structural advantages of incumbency, even as early indicators point to a narrower contest than in prior cycles.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$36,121结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek’s strong primary performance and Oregon’s established partisan lean have anchored trader consensus around an 86% probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. Recent polling shows a competitive general election matchup against Republican nominee Christine Drazan, with one June survey placing Drazan narrowly ahead and others indicating a near tie, prompting nonpartisan forecasters to adjust ratings from Solid Democratic to Likely or Lean Democratic. Drazan’s campaign has emphasized voter disapproval of Kotek while both candidates consolidated nominations following May primaries. The elevated Democratic odds align with historical patterns in the state and the structural advantages of incumbency, even as early indicators point to a narrower contest than in prior cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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