Oregon’s strong Democratic lean and the advantages of incumbency for Gov. Tina Kotek underpin the market’s 86% probability for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 election. Kotek secured her party’s nomination with over 84% in the May 19 primary, while Republican Christine Drazan, her 2022 opponent, prevailed in a crowded GOP field to set up a rematch. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Democratic, consistent with Oregon’s voting patterns and limited recent polling that has shown Kotek competitive or ahead. Trader positioning reflects these structural factors and the absence of major shifts in the roughly four months since the primaries, though the contest remains subject to broader national dynamics through Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,409 交易量
$18,409 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
86%
共和党
12%
$18,409 交易量
$18,409 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$10,513 交易量
86%
共和党
$7,896 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oregon’s strong Democratic lean and the advantages of incumbency for Gov. Tina Kotek underpin the market’s 86% probability for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 election. Kotek secured her party’s nomination with over 84% in the May 19 primary, while Republican Christine Drazan, her 2022 opponent, prevailed in a crowded GOP field to set up a rematch. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Democratic, consistent with Oregon’s voting patterns and limited recent polling that has shown Kotek competitive or ahead. Trader positioning reflects these structural factors and the absence of major shifts in the roughly four months since the primaries, though the contest remains subject to broader national dynamics through Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$18,409结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oregon’s strong Democratic lean and the advantages of incumbency for Gov. Tina Kotek underpin the market’s 86% probability for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 election. Kotek secured her party’s nomination with over 84% in the May 19 primary, while Republican Christine Drazan, her 2022 opponent, prevailed in a crowded GOP field to set up a rematch. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Democratic, consistent with Oregon’s voting patterns and limited recent polling that has shown Kotek competitive or ahead. Trader positioning reflects these structural factors and the absence of major shifts in the roughly four months since the primaries, though the contest remains subject to broader national dynamics through Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$18,409结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oregon’s strong Democratic lean and the advantages of incumbency for Gov. Tina Kotek underpin the market’s 86% probability for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 election. Kotek secured her party’s nomination with over 84% in the May 19 primary, while Republican Christine Drazan, her 2022 opponent, prevailed in a crowded GOP field to set up a rematch. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Democratic, consistent with Oregon’s voting patterns and limited recent polling that has shown Kotek competitive or ahead. Trader positioning reflects these structural factors and the absence of major shifts in the roughly four months since the primaries, though the contest remains subject to broader national dynamics through Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题