The tight distribution of trader probabilities across the 58–74% turnout bins reflects uncertainty around participation in Quebec’s October 5 election, called August 27 amid a fragmented race. Recent polls show the Parti Québécois leading narrowly but the Coalition Avenir Québec closing the gap sharply, alongside competitive showings from the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire in key regions. This multi-party contest, combined with debates over sovereignty timing, health services, living costs, and U.S. trade pressures, could mobilize voters, while new riding boundaries and advance-voting options add variables. Historical turnout near 66% in 2018–2022 provides a benchmark, yet shifts in campaign intensity, weather, or last-minute mobilization could push outcomes toward higher or lower ranges and separate the current clustered odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于58-62% 27%
70-74% 27%
62-66% 26%
74%及以上 25%
最新
最新
2026-10-05
低于58%
25%
58-62%
27%
62-66%
26%
66-70%
24%
70-74%
27%
74%及以上
25%
58-62% 27%
70-74% 27%
62-66% 26%
74%及以上 25%
最新
最新
2026-10-05
低于58%
$0 交易量
25%
58-62%
$0 交易量
27%
62-66%
$0 交易量
26%
66-70%
$0 交易量
24%
70-74%
$0 交易量
27%
74%及以上
$0 交易量
25%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The tight distribution of trader probabilities across the 58–74% turnout bins reflects uncertainty around participation in Quebec’s October 5 election, called August 27 amid a fragmented race. Recent polls show the Parti Québécois leading narrowly but the Coalition Avenir Québec closing the gap sharply, alongside competitive showings from the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire in key regions. This multi-party contest, combined with debates over sovereignty timing, health services, living costs, and U.S. trade pressures, could mobilize voters, while new riding boundaries and advance-voting options add variables. Historical turnout near 66% in 2018–2022 provides a benchmark, yet shifts in campaign intensity, weather, or last-minute mobilization could push outcomes toward higher or lower ranges and separate the current clustered odds.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 3:10 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 3:10 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The tight distribution of trader probabilities across the 58–74% turnout bins reflects uncertainty around participation in Quebec’s October 5 election, called August 27 amid a fragmented race. Recent polls show the Parti Québécois leading narrowly but the Coalition Avenir Québec closing the gap sharply, alongside competitive showings from the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire in key regions. This multi-party contest, combined with debates over sovereignty timing, health services, living costs, and U.S. trade pressures, could mobilize voters, while new riding boundaries and advance-voting options add variables. Historical turnout near 66% in 2018–2022 provides a benchmark, yet shifts in campaign intensity, weather, or last-minute mobilization could push outcomes toward higher or lower ranges and separate the current clustered odds.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 3:10 PM ETThe tight distribution of trader probabilities across the 58–74% turnout bins reflects uncertainty around participation in Quebec’s October 5 election, called August 27 amid a fragmented race. Recent polls show the Parti Québécois leading narrowly but the Coalition Avenir Québec closing the gap sharply, alongside competitive showings from the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire in key regions. This multi-party contest, combined with debates over sovereignty timing, health services, living costs, and U.S. trade pressures, could mobilize voters, while new riding boundaries and advance-voting options add variables. Historical turnout near 66% in 2018–2022 provides a benchmark, yet shifts in campaign intensity, weather, or last-minute mobilization could push outcomes toward higher or lower ranges and separate the current clustered odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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