The Texas U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains highly competitive heading into the November 3 general election, as recent public polls show the candidates statistically tied or separated by just a few points amid large numbers of undecided voters. Paxton’s May primary victory over longtime Sen. John Cornyn, backed by President Trump, consolidated much of the Republican base but left room for Democratic gains on issues such as affordability, taxes, and housing costs. Talarico has consolidated Democratic support effectively while drawing stronger independent and moderate backing in several surveys, though Paxton maintains advantages with older and white voters. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting Texas’s partisan lean alongside Paxton’s lower favorability tied to prior controversies. Late shifts in turnout, economic messaging, or national conditions could still widen the final margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于帕克斯顿 3-6% 20%
帕克斯顿 0-3% 17%
Talarico 0-3% 16%
Talarico 3-6% 11%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
帕克斯顿12%+
2%
帕克斯顿 9-12%
3%
帕克斯顿 6-9%
6%
帕克斯顿 3-6%
20%
帕克斯顿 0-3%
17%
Talarico 0-3%
16%
Talarico 3-6%
11%
塔拉里科 6-9%
7%
Talarico 9-12%
3%
Talarico 12%+
1%
帕克斯顿 3-6% 20%
帕克斯顿 0-3% 17%
Talarico 0-3% 16%
Talarico 3-6% 11%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
帕克斯顿12%+
$165 交易量
2%
帕克斯顿 9-12%
$113 交易量
3%
帕克斯顿 6-9%
$172 交易量
6%
帕克斯顿 3-6%
$185 交易量
20%
帕克斯顿 0-3%
$383 交易量
17%
Talarico 0-3%
$350 交易量
16%
Talarico 3-6%
$150 交易量
11%
塔拉里科 6-9%
$221 交易量
7%
Talarico 9-12%
$202 交易量
3%
Talarico 12%+
$234 交易量
1%
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Texas U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains highly competitive heading into the November 3 general election, as recent public polls show the candidates statistically tied or separated by just a few points amid large numbers of undecided voters. Paxton’s May primary victory over longtime Sen. John Cornyn, backed by President Trump, consolidated much of the Republican base but left room for Democratic gains on issues such as affordability, taxes, and housing costs. Talarico has consolidated Democratic support effectively while drawing stronger independent and moderate backing in several surveys, though Paxton maintains advantages with older and white voters. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting Texas’s partisan lean alongside Paxton’s lower favorability tied to prior controversies. Late shifts in turnout, economic messaging, or national conditions could still widen the final margin.
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
交易量
$2,175结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ETThe 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Texas U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains highly competitive heading into the November 3 general election, as recent public polls show the candidates statistically tied or separated by just a few points amid large numbers of undecided voters. Paxton’s May primary victory over longtime Sen. John Cornyn, backed by President Trump, consolidated much of the Republican base but left room for Democratic gains on issues such as affordability, taxes, and housing costs. Talarico has consolidated Democratic support effectively while drawing stronger independent and moderate backing in several surveys, though Paxton maintains advantages with older and white voters. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting Texas’s partisan lean alongside Paxton’s lower favorability tied to prior controversies. Late shifts in turnout, economic messaging, or national conditions could still widen the final margin.
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,175结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ETThe Texas U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains highly competitive heading into the November 3 general election, as recent public polls show the candidates statistically tied or separated by just a few points amid large numbers of undecided voters. Paxton’s May primary victory over longtime Sen. John Cornyn, backed by President Trump, consolidated much of the Republican base but left room for Democratic gains on issues such as affordability, taxes, and housing costs. Talarico has consolidated Democratic support effectively while drawing stronger independent and moderate backing in several surveys, though Paxton maintains advantages with older and white voters. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Republican, reflecting Texas’s partisan lean alongside Paxton’s lower favorability tied to prior controversies. Late shifts in turnout, economic messaging, or national conditions could still widen the final margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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