Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative shortfalls at $371 billion—well below 2025 levels—as import volumes declined after 2025 tariff adjustments normalized and front-loaded purchases faded. Exports of services and select goods held steadier, while the dollar’s path and subdued global demand continue to shape flows. These developments reinforce trader consensus around the 700–900 billion annual range, with the 800–900 billion bucket leading at 42 percent implied probability, as tariff effects and moderating import growth outweigh risks of renewed widening from stronger domestic demand or policy shifts. Upcoming BEA releases through year-end remain key catalysts for any repricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,009 交易量
$24,009 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
3%
5000亿–6000亿
5%
6000亿–7000亿美元
9%
7000亿–8000亿
28%
8,000亿–9,000亿
42%
9000亿–1万亿
14%
1万亿–1.1万亿
5%
1.1万亿美元以上
5%
$24,009 交易量
$24,009 交易量
2027-02-28
少于5000亿
$16,848 交易量
3%
5000亿–6000亿
$454 交易量
5%
6000亿–7000亿美元
$543 交易量
9%
7000亿–8000亿
$670 交易量
28%
8,000亿–9,000亿
$1,519 交易量
42%
9000亿–1万亿
$1,397 交易量
14%
1万亿–1.1万亿
$1,458 交易量
5%
1.1万亿美元以上
$1,119 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative shortfalls at $371 billion—well below 2025 levels—as import volumes declined after 2025 tariff adjustments normalized and front-loaded purchases faded. Exports of services and select goods held steadier, while the dollar’s path and subdued global demand continue to shape flows. These developments reinforce trader consensus around the 700–900 billion annual range, with the 800–900 billion bucket leading at 42 percent implied probability, as tariff effects and moderating import growth outweigh risks of renewed widening from stronger domestic demand or policy shifts. Upcoming BEA releases through year-end remain key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$24,009结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative shortfalls at $371 billion—well below 2025 levels—as import volumes declined after 2025 tariff adjustments normalized and front-loaded purchases faded. Exports of services and select goods held steadier, while the dollar’s path and subdued global demand continue to shape flows. These developments reinforce trader consensus around the 700–900 billion annual range, with the 800–900 billion bucket leading at 42 percent implied probability, as tariff effects and moderating import growth outweigh risks of renewed widening from stronger domestic demand or policy shifts. Upcoming BEA releases through year-end remain key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
交易量
$24,009结束日期
2027-02-28市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative shortfalls at $371 billion—well below 2025 levels—as import volumes declined after 2025 tariff adjustments normalized and front-loaded purchases faded. Exports of services and select goods held steadier, while the dollar’s path and subdued global demand continue to shape flows. These developments reinforce trader consensus around the 700–900 billion annual range, with the 800–900 billion bucket leading at 42 percent implied probability, as tariff effects and moderating import growth outweigh risks of renewed widening from stronger domestic demand or policy shifts. Upcoming BEA releases through year-end remain key catalysts for any repricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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