A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8 has tenuously held amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, but escalating tensions from a US naval blockade of Iranian ports—now in its third day as of April 15—have raised fears of Iranian retaliation. Tehran previously launched missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions near Haifa, and drone and cruise missile strikes on Gulf states' energy infrastructure in UAE, Kuwait, and others, aiming to disrupt global oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation via Pakistan continues, with Iran proposing safe passage for ships on Oman's side of Hormuz, though talks faltered last weekend; Saudi Arabia urges de-escalation to protect its facilities. Upcoming US-Iran talks could avert resumption of hostilities by April 30, but mutual threats of infrastructure strikes persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$463,297 交易量
2026-04-30
鲁韦斯炼油厂
24%
拉斯拉凡工业城
22%
哈布尚油田/加工综合体
22%
拉斯坦努拉
19%
库赖斯油田
19%
阿布盖格炼油厂
15%
祖尔炼油厂
13%
加瓦尔油田
11%
萨法尼亚油田
10%
利维坦油田
8%
哈利法塔
5%
迪莫纳（西蒙·佩雷斯内盖夫核研究中心）
3%
$463,297 交易量
鲁韦斯炼油厂
$39,640 交易量
24%
拉斯拉凡工业城
$35,822 交易量
22%
哈布尚油田/加工综合体
$46,276 交易量
22%
拉斯坦努拉
$37,991 交易量
19%
库赖斯油田
$14,786 交易量
19%
阿布盖格炼油厂
$38,125 交易量
15%
祖尔炼油厂
$30,213 交易量
13%
加瓦尔油田
$12,229 交易量
11%
萨法尼亚油田
$11,485 交易量
10%
利维坦油田
$7,662 交易量
8%
哈利法塔
$7,980 交易量
5%
迪莫纳（西蒙·佩雷斯内盖夫核研究中心）
$77,899 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8 has tenuously held amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, but escalating tensions from a US naval blockade of Iranian ports—now in its third day as of April 15—have raised fears of Iranian retaliation. Tehran previously launched missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions near Haifa, and drone and cruise missile strikes on Gulf states' energy infrastructure in UAE, Kuwait, and others, aiming to disrupt global oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation via Pakistan continues, with Iran proposing safe passage for ships on Oman's side of Hormuz, though talks faltered last weekend; Saudi Arabia urges de-escalation to protect its facilities. Upcoming US-Iran talks could avert resumption of hostilities by April 30, but mutual threats of infrastructure strikes persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$463,297结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8 has tenuously held amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, but escalating tensions from a US naval blockade of Iranian ports—now in its third day as of April 15—have raised fears of Iranian retaliation. Tehran previously launched missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions near Haifa, and drone and cruise missile strikes on Gulf states' energy infrastructure in UAE, Kuwait, and others, aiming to disrupt global oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation via Pakistan continues, with Iran proposing safe passage for ships on Oman's side of Hormuz, though talks faltered last weekend; Saudi Arabia urges de-escalation to protect its facilities. Upcoming US-Iran talks could avert resumption of hostilities by April 30, but mutual threats of infrastructure strikes persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
交易量
$463,297结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8 has tenuously held amid the US-Israel-Iran war that began February 28, but escalating tensions from a US naval blockade of Iranian ports—now in its third day as of April 15—have raised fears of Iranian retaliation. Tehran previously launched missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions near Haifa, and drone and cruise missile strikes on Gulf states' energy infrastructure in UAE, Kuwait, and others, aiming to disrupt global oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation via Pakistan continues, with Iran proposing safe passage for ships on Oman's side of Hormuz, though talks faltered last weekend; Saudi Arabia urges de-escalation to protect its facilities. Upcoming US-Iran talks could avert resumption of hostilities by April 30, but mutual threats of infrastructure strikes persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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