Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for a modest rebound in Strait of Hormuz transits following the US-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement, with implied probabilities pricing an 85% chance of at least 10 ships per IMF Portwatch daily arrivals data on any day through April 12, despite April 8 recording just four vessels amid Iran's $2 million tolls payable in Bitcoin or yuan. Pre-crisis averages exceeded 130 ships daily, supporting 20% of global oil flows; Brent crude eased to $94.53 per barrel on April 8 from recent $109 peaks but remains volatile above $90 amid supply disruption risks and elevated shipping insurance premiums. Key swing factors include diplomatic clarifications from Japan and France urging safe passage, with daily Portwatch updates through April 12 as critical catalysts potentially shifting odds on normalization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
2026-04-12
10
84%
20
43%
30
30%
40
21%
50
9%
60
6%
$5,751 交易量
10
$1,783 交易量
84%
20
$536 交易量
43%
30
$670 交易量
30%
40
$87 交易量
21%
50
$1,756 交易量
9%
60
$920 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for a modest rebound in Strait of Hormuz transits following the US-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement, with implied probabilities pricing an 85% chance of at least 10 ships per IMF Portwatch daily arrivals data on any day through April 12, despite April 8 recording just four vessels amid Iran's $2 million tolls payable in Bitcoin or yuan. Pre-crisis averages exceeded 130 ships daily, supporting 20% of global oil flows; Brent crude eased to $94.53 per barrel on April 8 from recent $109 peaks but remains volatile above $90 amid supply disruption risks and elevated shipping insurance premiums. Key swing factors include diplomatic clarifications from Japan and France urging safe passage, with daily Portwatch updates through April 12 as critical catalysts potentially shifting odds on normalization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
交易量
$5,751结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for a modest rebound in Strait of Hormuz transits following the US-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement, with implied probabilities pricing an 85% chance of at least 10 ships per IMF Portwatch daily arrivals data on any day through April 12, despite April 8 recording just four vessels amid Iran's $2 million tolls payable in Bitcoin or yuan. Pre-crisis averages exceeded 130 ships daily, supporting 20% of global oil flows; Brent crude eased to $94.53 per barrel on April 8 from recent $109 peaks but remains volatile above $90 amid supply disruption risks and elevated shipping insurance premiums. Key swing factors include diplomatic clarifications from Japan and France urging safe passage, with daily Portwatch updates through April 12 as critical catalysts potentially shifting odds on normalization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date within April 8 - April 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 12, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$5,751结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism for a modest rebound in Strait of Hormuz transits following the US-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement, with implied probabilities pricing an 85% chance of at least 10 ships per IMF Portwatch daily arrivals data on any day through April 12, despite April 8 recording just four vessels amid Iran's $2 million tolls payable in Bitcoin or yuan. Pre-crisis averages exceeded 130 ships daily, supporting 20% of global oil flows; Brent crude eased to $94.53 per barrel on April 8 from recent $109 peaks but remains volatile above $90 amid supply disruption risks and elevated shipping insurance premiums. Key swing factors include diplomatic clarifications from Japan and France urging safe passage, with daily Portwatch updates through April 12 as critical catalysts potentially shifting odds on normalization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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