US-Iran hostilities that began with joint US-Israeli strikes in February 2026 have featured airstrikes, naval blockades, and Iranian responses around the Strait of Hormuz, yet shifted in recent months toward sustained economic sanctions, secondary sanctions threats, and diplomatic maneuvering through mediators. A June memorandum of understanding expired without reopening the strait or halting nuclear-related activity, prompting renewed but limited exchanges rather than escalation to ground forces. Administration statements emphasize maximum pressure tools short of invasion, while military analyses highlight the troop levels, logistics, and risks that make a large-scale US ground operation improbable before December 2026. These dynamics underpin trader pricing of an 86.5% probability that no US invasion will occur by the market's resolution date.