Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including technical talks through June 2026 and the Islamabad Memorandum, represent the primary driver behind traders assigning a 79.5% probability to no American invasion before 2027. Direct and mediated diplomatic channels under the current administration have focused on enrichment limits and verification, with officials describing rounds as constructive despite remaining gaps. No major military mobilizations or authorization votes have occurred in the resolution window, and Congress has not approved force. Historical patterns show presidents favoring diplomacy when talks progress, though unresolved issues or regional incidents could still shift calculations. The market consensus reflects this emphasis on de-escalation through talks rather than immediate conflict.