Current ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including those referenced by the China Meteorological Administration, place Beijing's August 18 daytime maximum near 30–31 °C under typical late-summer subtropical high influence with moderate humidity. Close market probabilities around 29–31 °C reflect uncertainty in afternoon convective cloud cover and scattered showers that could trim peak solar heating by 1–2 °C, versus clearer periods allowing brief spikes toward 32 °C. Recent model runs show limited day-to-day shifts, consistent with climatological August averages of 30 °C and the absence of strong heatwave signals. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.