Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on August 18 will likely peak in the upper 30s Celsius, driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and typical summer insolation over the central Iberian Plateau. Historical August averages hover near 32–34°C, but 2026's warmer-than-normal seasonal outlook—following earlier heatwaves with peaks above 40°C—supports elevated readings without a full North African plume. Low humidity and minimal cloud cover reduce cooling, while ensemble consensus shows limited day-to-day variance through mid-month. Traders price 38°C and 39°C highest because these align with the narrow range of current guidance, with resolution hinging on official AEMET observations at reference stations; any model shift or unexpected Atlantic moisture could narrow probabilities further before the 18th.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 18. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 18. August?
38°C 50%
39°C 34%
37°C 12%
40°C 5%
NEU
NEU
18. Aug. 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
3%
37°C
12%
38°C
50%
39°C
34%
40°C
5%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 50%
39°C 34%
37°C 12%
40°C 5%
NEU
NEU
18. Aug. 2026
34°C or below
$239 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$365 Vol.
1%
36°C
$330 Vol.
3%
37°C
$573 Vol.
12%
38°C
$555 Vol.
50%
39°C
$1,263 Vol.
34%
40°C
$377 Vol.
5%
41°C
$312 Vol.
1%
42°C
$175 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$237 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on August 18 will likely peak in the upper 30s Celsius, driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and typical summer insolation over the central Iberian Plateau. Historical August averages hover near 32–34°C, but 2026's warmer-than-normal seasonal outlook—following earlier heatwaves with peaks above 40°C—supports elevated readings without a full North African plume. Low humidity and minimal cloud cover reduce cooling, while ensemble consensus shows limited day-to-day variance through mid-month. Traders price 38°C and 39°C highest because these align with the narrow range of current guidance, with resolution hinging on official AEMET observations at reference stations; any model shift or unexpected Atlantic moisture could narrow probabilities further before the 18th.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$5,026Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on August 18 will likely peak in the upper 30s Celsius, driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and typical summer insolation over the central Iberian Plateau. Historical August averages hover near 32–34°C, but 2026's warmer-than-normal seasonal outlook—following earlier heatwaves with peaks above 40°C—supports elevated readings without a full North African plume. Low humidity and minimal cloud cover reduce cooling, while ensemble consensus shows limited day-to-day variance through mid-month. Traders price 38°C and 39°C highest because these align with the narrow range of current guidance, with resolution hinging on official AEMET observations at reference stations; any model shift or unexpected Atlantic moisture could narrow probabilities further before the 18th.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,026Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like the Met Office and BBC indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on August 18 will likely peak in the upper 30s Celsius, driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and typical summer insolation over the central Iberian Plateau. Historical August averages hover near 32–34°C, but 2026's warmer-than-normal seasonal outlook—following earlier heatwaves with peaks above 40°C—supports elevated readings without a full North African plume. Low humidity and minimal cloud cover reduce cooling, while ensemble consensus shows limited day-to-day variance through mid-month. Traders price 38°C and 39°C highest because these align with the narrow range of current guidance, with resolution hinging on official AEMET observations at reference stations; any model shift or unexpected Atlantic moisture could narrow probabilities further before the 18th.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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