Trader consensus clusters tightly around 29–31°C for Istanbul’s August 18 maximum, underscoring forecast uncertainty at short lead times. Ensemble model runs show modest variability tied to the exact track and strength of a high-pressure ridge over the Balkans, which modulates subsidence warming and boundary-layer mixing. Sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara, near long-term August averages, constrain additional heat advection from the south, while variable afternoon sea-breeze strength and potential thin cloud cover can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Upcoming Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF updates will refine these signals, as small changes in wind speed or timing of any frontal passage remain the key differentiators among the leading outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 18. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 18. August?
30°C 31%
31°C 29%
29°C 27%
32°C 8%
NEU
NEU
18. Aug. 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
5%
28°C
7%
29°C
27%
30°C
31%
31°C
29%
32°C
8%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 31%
31°C 29%
29°C 27%
32°C 8%
NEU
NEU
18. Aug. 2026
24°C or below
$177 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$10 Vol.
2%
26°C
$33 Vol.
4%
27°C
$80 Vol.
5%
28°C
$45 Vol.
7%
29°C
$32 Vol.
27%
30°C
$321 Vol.
31%
31°C
$109 Vol.
29%
32°C
$74 Vol.
8%
33°C
$56 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$46 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 29–31°C for Istanbul’s August 18 maximum, underscoring forecast uncertainty at short lead times. Ensemble model runs show modest variability tied to the exact track and strength of a high-pressure ridge over the Balkans, which modulates subsidence warming and boundary-layer mixing. Sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara, near long-term August averages, constrain additional heat advection from the south, while variable afternoon sea-breeze strength and potential thin cloud cover can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Upcoming Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF updates will refine these signals, as small changes in wind speed or timing of any frontal passage remain the key differentiators among the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$983Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 29–31°C for Istanbul’s August 18 maximum, underscoring forecast uncertainty at short lead times. Ensemble model runs show modest variability tied to the exact track and strength of a high-pressure ridge over the Balkans, which modulates subsidence warming and boundary-layer mixing. Sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara, near long-term August averages, constrain additional heat advection from the south, while variable afternoon sea-breeze strength and potential thin cloud cover can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Upcoming Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF updates will refine these signals, as small changes in wind speed or timing of any frontal passage remain the key differentiators among the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$983Enddatum
18. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 29–31°C for Istanbul’s August 18 maximum, underscoring forecast uncertainty at short lead times. Ensemble model runs show modest variability tied to the exact track and strength of a high-pressure ridge over the Balkans, which modulates subsidence warming and boundary-layer mixing. Sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara, near long-term August averages, constrain additional heat advection from the south, while variable afternoon sea-breeze strength and potential thin cloud cover can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Upcoming Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF updates will refine these signals, as small changes in wind speed or timing of any frontal passage remain the key differentiators among the leading outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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