Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight cluster of probabilities for Chicago's March 26 high temperature in the 64-75°F range, primarily driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a potent ridge of high pressure aloft ushering southerly flow and above-normal warmth into the Midwest. Mean projections hover near 68°F, with 64-65°F and 68-69°F edging out at 15% each due to ensemble spreads capturing uncertainties in boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers that could cap peaks. Differentiating factors include historical March volatility—averaging 48°F but prone to 20°F anomalies—and subtle model biases, where GFS leans slightly warmer than ECMWF; sub-60°F odds languish below 7% amid persistent mild signals, though 18z updates may refine odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
64-65°F 15%
68-69°F 15%
70-71°F 15%
66-67°F 14%
$45,037 Vol.
$45,037 Vol.
59°F or below
7%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
5%
78°F or higher
5%
64-65°F 15%
68-69°F 15%
70-71°F 15%
66-67°F 14%
$45,037 Vol.
$45,037 Vol.
59°F or below
7%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
5%
78°F or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight cluster of probabilities for Chicago's March 26 high temperature in the 64-75°F range, primarily driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a potent ridge of high pressure aloft ushering southerly flow and above-normal warmth into the Midwest. Mean projections hover near 68°F, with 64-65°F and 68-69°F edging out at 15% each due to ensemble spreads capturing uncertainties in boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloud cover, and potential convective showers that could cap peaks. Differentiating factors include historical March volatility—averaging 48°F but prone to 20°F anomalies—and subtle model biases, where GFS leans slightly warmer than ECMWF; sub-60°F odds languish below 7% amid persistent mild signals, though 18z updates may refine odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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