Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Chicago's March 28 high temperature clustering in the 50-53°F range, driven primarily by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting a daytime peak near 52°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement around 50-53°F, reflecting a mild late-winter setup with ridging aloft weakening any lingering cold air masses from recent polar outbreaks. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on cloud cover—ECMWF runs lean slightly cooler with more overcast conditions versus GFS's sunnier bias—and potential lake-effect moderation from Lake Michigan, capping extremes below 55°F while historical March norms (average high ~48°F) anchor lower probabilities for sub-48°F or 55°F+ outcomes. Upcoming 12z model updates could shift odds amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
52-53°F 27%
50-51°F 25%
48-49°F 19%
46-47°F 16%
43°F or below
6%
44-45°F
11%
46-47°F
16%
48-49°F
19%
50-51°F
25%
52-53°F
27%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
52-53°F 27%
50-51°F 25%
48-49°F 19%
46-47°F 16%
43°F or below
6%
44-45°F
11%
46-47°F
16%
48-49°F
19%
50-51°F
25%
52-53°F
27%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Chicago's March 28 high temperature clustering in the 50-53°F range, driven primarily by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting a daytime peak near 52°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement around 50-53°F, reflecting a mild late-winter setup with ridging aloft weakening any lingering cold air masses from recent polar outbreaks. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on cloud cover—ECMWF runs lean slightly cooler with more overcast conditions versus GFS's sunnier bias—and potential lake-effect moderation from Lake Michigan, capping extremes below 55°F while historical March norms (average high ~48°F) anchor lower probabilities for sub-48°F or 55°F+ outcomes. Upcoming 12z model updates could shift odds amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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