Trader consensus favors mid-80s highs for Houston on March 27, with 84-85°F at 30.5% and 86-87°F at 26.5% implied probabilities, driven by NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a potent upper-level ridge over Texas promoting subsidence warming and southerly low-level winds advecting Gulf moisture. This setup projects highs 6-10°F above the 78°F climatological average, per historical NWS data, amid low precipitation risk. Differentiation stems from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and peak insolation—higher dewpoint depressions favor 86-87°F, while subtle marine layer persistence could cap at 84-85°F. Watch 12Z updates for refinements, as convective debris remains a low-confidence wild card.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Houston on March 27?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 27?
84-85°F 30%
86-87°F 27%
88-89°F 22%
82-83°F 20%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
30%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
7%
94°F or higher
9%
84-85°F 30%
86-87°F 27%
88-89°F 22%
82-83°F 20%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
30%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
7%
94°F or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors mid-80s highs for Houston on March 27, with 84-85°F at 30.5% and 86-87°F at 26.5% implied probabilities, driven by NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing a potent upper-level ridge over Texas promoting subsidence warming and southerly low-level winds advecting Gulf moisture. This setup projects highs 6-10°F above the 78°F climatological average, per historical NWS data, amid low precipitation risk. Differentiation stems from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and peak insolation—higher dewpoint depressions favor 86-87°F, while subtle marine layer persistence could cap at 84-85°F. Watch 12Z updates for refinements, as convective debris remains a low-confidence wild card.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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