Trader consensus favors a 31°C high in Sao Paulo on March 22 at 28% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on 30-32°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and boosting solar heating. March climatology typically sees highs near 28°C, but recent dry conditions and northerly winds have elevated baseline temperatures, differentiating the tight race among 29°C (15.5%), 30°C (20%), and 32°C (15.5%) outcomes. INMET's latest guidance highlights low precipitation risk, though afternoon sea breezes could cap peaks at 30°C, underscoring model spread as the key uncertainty for traders.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 22?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 22?
31°C 28%
30°C 20%
29°C 16%
32°C 16%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
10%
29°C
16%
30°C
20%
31°C
28%
32°C
16%
33°C
8%
34°C or higher
2%
31°C 28%
30°C 20%
29°C 16%
32°C 16%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
10%
29°C
16%
30°C
20%
31°C
28%
32°C
16%
33°C
8%
34°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 31°C high in Sao Paulo on March 22 at 28% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging on 30-32°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and boosting solar heating. March climatology typically sees highs near 28°C, but recent dry conditions and northerly winds have elevated baseline temperatures, differentiating the tight race among 29°C (15.5%), 30°C (20%), and 32°C (15.5%) outcomes. INMET's latest guidance highlights low precipitation risk, though afternoon sea breezes could cap peaks at 30°C, underscoring model spread as the key uncertainty for traders.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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