**Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are keeping Dallas under a strong heat dome, with official and model guidance showing overnight lows near 80–82°F on September 14.** Clear skies and southerly winds of 5–12 mph limit radiative cooling after daytime highs of 98–101°F, while dew points in the low-to-mid 70s maintain high humidity and elevated minimum temperatures. This setup follows a brief period of storms earlier in the week and aligns with a multi-week dry, above-normal pattern driven by the subtropical ridge. National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts (GFS/ECMWF) show high confidence in this regime through Monday, with any cooler air tied to a possible late-week cold front remaining well beyond the resolution window. Historical September 14 averages (high ~90°F, low ~71°F) underscore how far current conditions deviate, but the market’s near-even odds between ≤71°F and ≥90°F reflect trader focus on tail-risk model spread and the narrow band of plausible outcomes clustered around 78–82°F. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours to alter this baseline.