**Forecasts from the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and other sources point to an overnight minimum around 58°F for San Francisco on September 18, 2026, consistent with typical early-fall marine influence.** Onshore westerly winds and the persistent marine layer limit radiational cooling, keeping the daily low in the upper 50s rather than allowing deeper drops. Historical September averages near 55–56°F provide context, but current model consensus and early-morning observations (58–59°F) support a slightly milder outcome. The closely matched market probabilities (60–61°F at 53.5%, several bins near 49% from 52–59°F, and 51°F or below at 45%) reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum. Key variables include the exact timing of fog clearance, localized wind speeds that affect mixing, and differences between official stations (e.g., SFO airport versus urban microclimates). Higher outcomes above 62°F carry negligible implied odds because persistent onshore flow and cloud cover suppress daytime heat retention into the night. No unusual atmospheric patterns or recent shifts have altered the baseline forecast, so traders are pricing in normal variability around the expected 58°F range while awaiting final 24-hour observations for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in San Francisco am 18. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in San Francisco am 18. September?
51°F oder darunter 90%
52-53°F 50%
54-55°F 50%
56-57°F 15%
NEU
NEU
18. Sep. 2026
51°F oder darunter
90%
52-53°F
50%
54-55°F
50%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
51%
60-61 °F
51%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67 °F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70°F oder höher
<1%
51°F oder darunter 90%
52-53°F 50%
54-55°F 50%
56-57°F 15%
NEU
NEU
18. Sep. 2026
51°F oder darunter
$0 Vol.
90%
52-53°F
$1 Vol.
50%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
50%
56-57°F
$397 Vol.
17%
58-59°F
$93 Vol.
51%
60-61 °F
$104 Vol.
51%
62-63°F
$15 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
66-67 °F
$0 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
70°F oder höher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and other sources point to an overnight minimum around 58°F for San Francisco on September 18, 2026, consistent with typical early-fall marine influence.** Onshore westerly winds and the persistent marine layer limit radiational cooling, keeping the daily low in the upper 50s rather than allowing deeper drops. Historical September averages near 55–56°F provide context, but current model consensus and early-morning observations (58–59°F) support a slightly milder outcome.
The closely matched market probabilities (60–61°F at 53.5%, several bins near 49% from 52–59°F, and 51°F or below at 45%) reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum. Key variables include the exact timing of fog clearance, localized wind speeds that affect mixing, and differences between official stations (e.g., SFO airport versus urban microclimates). Higher outcomes above 62°F carry negligible implied odds because persistent onshore flow and cloud cover suppress daytime heat retention into the night.
No unusual atmospheric patterns or recent shifts have altered the baseline forecast, so traders are pricing in normal variability around the expected 58°F range while awaiting final 24-hour observations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volumen
$631Enddatum
18. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and other sources point to an overnight minimum around 58°F for San Francisco on September 18, 2026, consistent with typical early-fall marine influence.** Onshore westerly winds and the persistent marine layer limit radiational cooling, keeping the daily low in the upper 50s rather than allowing deeper drops. Historical September averages near 55–56°F provide context, but current model consensus and early-morning observations (58–59°F) support a slightly milder outcome.
The closely matched market probabilities (60–61°F at 53.5%, several bins near 49% from 52–59°F, and 51°F or below at 45%) reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum. Key variables include the exact timing of fog clearance, localized wind speeds that affect mixing, and differences between official stations (e.g., SFO airport versus urban microclimates). Higher outcomes above 62°F carry negligible implied odds because persistent onshore flow and cloud cover suppress daytime heat retention into the night.
No unusual atmospheric patterns or recent shifts have altered the baseline forecast, so traders are pricing in normal variability around the expected 58°F range while awaiting final 24-hour observations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$631Enddatum
18. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 16, 2026, 7:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts from the National Weather Service, WeatherBug, and other sources point to an overnight minimum around 58°F for San Francisco on September 18, 2026, consistent with typical early-fall marine influence.** Onshore westerly winds and the persistent marine layer limit radiational cooling, keeping the daily low in the upper 50s rather than allowing deeper drops. Historical September averages near 55–56°F provide context, but current model consensus and early-morning observations (58–59°F) support a slightly milder outcome. The closely matched market probabilities (60–61°F at 53.5%, several bins near 49% from 52–59°F, and 51°F or below at 45%) reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum. Key variables include the exact timing of fog clearance, localized wind speeds that affect mixing, and differences between official stations (e.g., SFO airport versus urban microclimates). Higher outcomes above 62°F carry negligible implied odds because persistent onshore flow and cloud cover suppress daytime heat retention into the night. No unusual atmospheric patterns or recent shifts have altered the baseline forecast, so traders are pricing in normal variability around the expected 58°F range while awaiting final 24-hour observations for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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