Skip to main content

Um in den USA zu traden, geh zu polymarket.us

icon for Nächstes Claude Sonnet veröffentlicht am...?
Technik·AI

Nächstes Claude Sonnet veröffentlicht am...?

icon for Nächstes Claude Sonnet veröffentlicht am...?
Technik·AI

Nächstes Claude Sonnet veröffentlicht am...?

Okt. 16

Jan. 1, 2027

Okt. 16

Jan. 1, 2027

2. Oktober 25%

13. Oktober 25%

11. Oktober 24%

Am oder vor dem 24. September 24%

Polymarket
NEU

2. Oktober 25%

13. Oktober 25%

11. Oktober 24%

Am oder vor dem 24. September 24%

Polymarket
NEU

Am oder vor dem 24. September

$0 Vol.

24%

25. September

$0 Vol.

14%

26. September

$0 Vol.

14%

27. September

$0 Vol.

14%

28. September

$0 Vol.

13%

29. September

$0 Vol.

13%

30. September

$0 Vol.

14%

1. Oktober

$0 Vol.

13%

2. Oktober

$0 Vol.

25%

3. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

4. Oktober

$0 Vol.

13%

5. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

6. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

7. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

8. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

9. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

10. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

11. Oktober

$0 Vol.

24%

12. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

13. Oktober

$0 Vol.

25%

14. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

15. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

Keine Veröffentlichung bis zum 15. Oktober

$0 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public. Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5 explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow “in the coming weeks,” establishing the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment around an early-to-mid October window. This follows the rapid cadence of the 5.x series, with Sonnet 5 shipping June 30 and Fable 5.1 arriving September 1, while the company continues iterating on agentic capabilities, tool use, and cost efficiency to maintain competitive positioning against other large language model developers. The diffuse probabilities reflect uncertainty over exact internal timelines, typical slippage in model training and safety evaluations, and absence of further dated signals, though any additional roadmap updates or benchmark leaks could quickly shift the closely contested near-term dates.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.

Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public. Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
16. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47de9d...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public. Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5 explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow “in the coming weeks,” establishing the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment around an early-to-mid October window. This follows the rapid cadence of the 5.x series, with Sonnet 5 shipping June 30 and Fable 5.1 arriving September 1, while the company continues iterating on agentic capabilities, tool use, and cost efficiency to maintain competitive positioning against other large language model developers. The diffuse probabilities reflect uncertainty over exact internal timelines, typical slippage in model training and safety evaluations, and absence of further dated signals, though any additional roadmap updates or benchmark leaks could quickly shift the closely contested near-term dates.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.

Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public. Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
16. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47de9d...

Verwandte

icon for Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?

100%
icon for Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?

Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?

96%
icon for Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?

Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?

92%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Nächstes Claude Sonnet veröffentlicht am...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 23 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „2. Oktober" mit 48%, gefolgt von „13. Oktober" mit 48%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 48¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 48% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Nächstes Claude Sonnet veröffentlicht am...?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 24, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Nächstes Claude Sonnet veröffentlicht am...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 23 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dieser Markt wurde kürzlich erstellt und hat noch keinen ersten Handel erhalten. Seien Sie der Erste, der die Eröffnungsquoten setzt, indem Sie einen Handel platzieren, oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen, um später nachzuschauen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Nächstes Claude Sonnet veröffentlicht am...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.