North Korea–South Korea relations remain stable under strong deterrence from the U.S.–Republic of Korea alliance and extensive South Korean defenses, which traders view as primary barriers to any invasion before 2027. No major military mobilizations, border incidents, or leadership statements indicating imminent large-scale action have occurred in recent months, keeping implied probabilities for “No” near 96%. North Korea has continued missile testing and rhetoric focused on deterrence rather than offensive preparations. Factors that could still shift odds include sudden internal instability in Pyongyang, unexpected diplomatic breakdowns, or miscalculations during heightened exercises, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.