North Korea’s ongoing military modernization, including recent destroyer commissions and missile tests, reflects a focus on long-term deterrence and naval expansion rather than preparations for immediate large-scale conflict with South Korea. Pyongyang’s “two hostile states” doctrine and constitutional changes have redefined relations as adversarial without pursuing unification, while Seoul’s Lee Jae Myung administration has shifted toward a “peace first” engagement policy that prioritizes dialogue and tension reduction. Strengthened U.S.-South Korea nuclear deterrence coordination and alliance exercises further raise the costs of any invasion attempt. Traders assign a 96.5% probability to no invasion before 2027 because these structural barriers and risk calculations have held amid routine provocations. A narrow set of developments, such as rapid escalation from border incidents or major shifts in U.S. commitments, could still alter the outlook within the short remaining window.