North Korea’s institutional shift to treating South Korea as a permanent hostile state, codified in constitutional amendments and repeated leadership statements through early 2026, has reduced the likelihood of large-scale conventional invasion by prioritizing nuclear deterrence and border fortification over unification goals. Recent missile tests and KCNA editorials criticizing U.S.-South Korea-Japan military cooperation, including a late July warning that peninsula conflict is now a question of timing, reflect ongoing signaling and capability development rather than imminent offensive preparations. South Korea’s “peaceful coexistence” policy under President Lee Jae-myung, combined with extended deterrence arrangements and alliance exercises, continues to shape trader assessments that Pyongyang will maintain the status quo through 2026. A major miscalculation during drills, abrupt alliance shifts, or unexpected North Korean force movements remain the primary variables that could still alter this consensus.