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Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)

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Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)

may 10

may 10

1,15–1,19ºC 51%

1,20–1,24ºC 26%

1,10–1,14ºC 14%

1,25–1,29 ºC 9%

Polymarket

$120,768 Vol.

1,15–1,19ºC 51%

1,20–1,24ºC 26%

1,10–1,14ºC 14%

1,25–1,29 ºC 9%

Polymarket

$120,768 Vol.

<1,10ºC

$28,253 Vol.

3%

1,10–1,14ºC

$23,018 Vol.

14%

1,15–1,19ºC

$13,890 Vol.

51%

1,20–1,24ºC

$15,815 Vol.

26%

1,25–1,29 ºC

$27,729 Vol.

9%

>1.29ºC

$12,064 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 1.15–1.19ºC global temperature anomaly at 42.5% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting sustained warmth from elevated sea surface temperatures nearing 2024 records (Copernicus ERA5 data) and early-month daily averages hitting +1.51ºC above pre-industrial levels as of April 13. This builds on March's fourth-warmest ranking at +1.48ºC pre-industrial (+0.53ºC versus 1991–2020), but anticipates moderation under ENSO-neutral conditions favored through June (80% NOAA probability). WMO multi-model ensembles project above-normal land surface air temperatures for April–June, with NOAA's forthcoming Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index report versus 1901–2000 baseline poised to influence final resolution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$120,768
Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 1.15–1.19ºC global temperature anomaly at 42.5% implied probability for April 2026, reflecting sustained warmth from elevated sea surface temperatures nearing 2024 records (Copernicus ERA5 data) and early-month daily averages hitting +1.51ºC above pre-industrial levels as of April 13. This builds on March's fourth-warmest ranking at +1.48ºC pre-industrial (+0.53ºC versus 1991–2020), but anticipates moderation under ENSO-neutral conditions favored through June (80% NOAA probability). WMO multi-model ensembles project above-normal land surface air temperatures for April–June, with NOAA's forthcoming Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index report versus 1901–2000 baseline poised to influence final resolution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$120,768
Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "1,15–1,19ºC" con 51%, seguido de "1,20–1,24ºC" con 26%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 51¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 51% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" ha generado $120.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 23, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" es "1,15–1,19ºC" con 51%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 51% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1,20–1,24ºC" con 26%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.