Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Madrid high of 24°C at 47% implied probability, closely followed by 23°C (28%) and 25°C (22%), reflecting the latest AEMET forecast projecting a 23°C maximum under clear skies and light northerly winds at 15 km/h, aligned with ECMWF and AccuWeather model runs showing peaks near 24°C amid abundant sunshine. This positioning stems from a high-pressure ridge over Iberia enabling strong diurnal heating, warmer than the historical April 15 average of 19°C at Retiro station. Morning observations indicate a cool start around 8–10°C, with peak temperatures expected mid-afternoon (2–5 p.m. local time); real-time AEMET hourly updates and station data will likely influence final probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 15?
24°C 47%
23°C 28%
25°C 22%
26°C 2.8%
$36,320 Vol.
$36,320 Vol.
15 abr 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
28%
24°C
47%
25°C
22%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 47%
23°C 28%
25°C 22%
26°C 2.8%
$36,320 Vol.
$36,320 Vol.
15 abr 2026
18°C or below
$3,236 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,313 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,607 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$5,471 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$7,609 Vol.
2%
23°C
$2,593 Vol.
28%
24°C
$2,696 Vol.
47%
25°C
$2,437 Vol.
22%
26°C
$3,972 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,795 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$2,591 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Madrid high of 24°C at 47% implied probability, closely followed by 23°C (28%) and 25°C (22%), reflecting the latest AEMET forecast projecting a 23°C maximum under clear skies and light northerly winds at 15 km/h, aligned with ECMWF and AccuWeather model runs showing peaks near 24°C amid abundant sunshine. This positioning stems from a high-pressure ridge over Iberia enabling strong diurnal heating, warmer than the historical April 15 average of 19°C at Retiro station. Morning observations indicate a cool start around 8–10°C, with peak temperatures expected mid-afternoon (2–5 p.m. local time); real-time AEMET hourly updates and station data will likely influence final probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Volumen
$36,320Fecha de finalización
15 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Madrid high of 24°C at 47% implied probability, closely followed by 23°C (28%) and 25°C (22%), reflecting the latest AEMET forecast projecting a 23°C maximum under clear skies and light northerly winds at 15 km/h, aligned with ECMWF and AccuWeather model runs showing peaks near 24°C amid abundant sunshine. This positioning stems from a high-pressure ridge over Iberia enabling strong diurnal heating, warmer than the historical April 15 average of 19°C at Retiro station. Morning observations indicate a cool start around 8–10°C, with peak temperatures expected mid-afternoon (2–5 p.m. local time); real-time AEMET hourly updates and station data will likely influence final probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$36,320Fecha de finalización
15 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Madrid high of 24°C at 47% implied probability, closely followed by 23°C (28%) and 25°C (22%), reflecting the latest AEMET forecast projecting a 23°C maximum under clear skies and light northerly winds at 15 km/h, aligned with ECMWF and AccuWeather model runs showing peaks near 24°C amid abundant sunshine. This positioning stems from a high-pressure ridge over Iberia enabling strong diurnal heating, warmer than the historical April 15 average of 19°C at Retiro station. Morning observations indicate a cool start around 8–10°C, with peak temperatures expected mid-afternoon (2–5 p.m. local time); real-time AEMET hourly updates and station data will likely influence final probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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