Latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs project Madrid's highest temperature on April 16 at 24-26°C—precisely matching the leading market-implied odds of 41.5% for those outcomes—due to a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting subsidence, mostly clear skies, and light winds (5-20 km/h from NE to S) that enable strong diurnal heating. Trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in the exact integer peak, with a 2-3°C model spread driven by potential afternoon cumulus development, subtle wind direction shifts favoring warmer southerlies, and urban heat island amplification at the official Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport station. Above-normal seasonal trends per AEMET follow recent spring warming after early storms, with new midday AEMET and evening ECMWF updates poised to refine guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 16?
25°C 42%
26°C 31%
24°C 16%
27°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
2%
24°C
16%
25°C
42%
26°C
31%
27°C
11%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
25°C 42%
26°C 31%
24°C 16%
27°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
20°C or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$129 Vol.
1%
22°C
$224 Vol.
4%
23°C
$169 Vol.
2%
24°C
$107 Vol.
16%
25°C
$169 Vol.
42%
26°C
$98 Vol.
31%
27°C
$121 Vol.
11%
28°C
$129 Vol.
4%
29°C
$69 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$164 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs project Madrid's highest temperature on April 16 at 24-26°C—precisely matching the leading market-implied odds of 41.5% for those outcomes—due to a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting subsidence, mostly clear skies, and light winds (5-20 km/h from NE to S) that enable strong diurnal heating. Trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in the exact integer peak, with a 2-3°C model spread driven by potential afternoon cumulus development, subtle wind direction shifts favoring warmer southerlies, and urban heat island amplification at the official Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport station. Above-normal seasonal trends per AEMET follow recent spring warming after early storms, with new midday AEMET and evening ECMWF updates poised to refine guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,378Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs project Madrid's highest temperature on April 16 at 24-26°C—precisely matching the leading market-implied odds of 41.5% for those outcomes—due to a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting subsidence, mostly clear skies, and light winds (5-20 km/h from NE to S) that enable strong diurnal heating. Trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in the exact integer peak, with a 2-3°C model spread driven by potential afternoon cumulus development, subtle wind direction shifts favoring warmer southerlies, and urban heat island amplification at the official Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport station. Above-normal seasonal trends per AEMET follow recent spring warming after early storms, with new midday AEMET and evening ECMWF updates poised to refine guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,378Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs project Madrid's highest temperature on April 16 at 24-26°C—precisely matching the leading market-implied odds of 41.5% for those outcomes—due to a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia promoting subsidence, mostly clear skies, and light winds (5-20 km/h from NE to S) that enable strong diurnal heating. Trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in the exact integer peak, with a 2-3°C model spread driven by potential afternoon cumulus development, subtle wind direction shifts favoring warmer southerlies, and urban heat island amplification at the official Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport station. Above-normal seasonal trends per AEMET follow recent spring warming after early storms, with new midday AEMET and evening ECMWF updates poised to refine guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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