Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 16, with 26–28°C outcomes at 50% implied probabilities driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) guidance projecting maxima in the 26–28°C range amid partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 14 km/h. Recent SMN updates as of April 14 show similar conditions persisting, with stable subsidence and low humidity favoring daytime heating at the high-elevation Benito Juárez International Airport site, where urban heat island effects can add 1–2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation by 1°C and model spreads (GFS/ECMWF consensus ~26°C), against historical April averages of 26°C. New SMN bulletins and model runs expected April 15 could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 16?
29°C 37%
28°C 30%
26°C 16%
27°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
9%
25°C
12%
26°C
19%
27°C
16%
28°C
30%
29°C
37%
30°C
12%
31°C
7%
32°C or higher
4%
29°C 37%
28°C 30%
26°C 16%
27°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
22°C or below
$38 Vol.
1%
23°C
$15 Vol.
2%
24°C
$20 Vol.
9%
25°C
$4 Vol.
12%
26°C
$32 Vol.
19%
27°C
$58 Vol.
16%
28°C
$3 Vol.
30%
29°C
$8 Vol.
37%
30°C
$3 Vol.
12%
31°C
$8 Vol.
7%
32°C or higher
$15 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 16, with 26–28°C outcomes at 50% implied probabilities driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) guidance projecting maxima in the 26–28°C range amid partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 14 km/h. Recent SMN updates as of April 14 show similar conditions persisting, with stable subsidence and low humidity favoring daytime heating at the high-elevation Benito Juárez International Airport site, where urban heat island effects can add 1–2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation by 1°C and model spreads (GFS/ECMWF consensus ~26°C), against historical April averages of 26°C. New SMN bulletins and model runs expected April 15 could shift odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$203Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 16, with 26–28°C outcomes at 50% implied probabilities driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) guidance projecting maxima in the 26–28°C range amid partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 14 km/h. Recent SMN updates as of April 14 show similar conditions persisting, with stable subsidence and low humidity favoring daytime heating at the high-elevation Benito Juárez International Airport site, where urban heat island effects can add 1–2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation by 1°C and model spreads (GFS/ECMWF consensus ~26°C), against historical April averages of 26°C. New SMN bulletins and model runs expected April 15 could shift odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$203Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 16, with 26–28°C outcomes at 50% implied probabilities driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) guidance projecting maxima in the 26–28°C range amid partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 14 km/h. Recent SMN updates as of April 14 show similar conditions persisting, with stable subsidence and low humidity favoring daytime heating at the high-elevation Benito Juárez International Airport site, where urban heat island effects can add 1–2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation by 1°C and model spreads (GFS/ECMWF consensus ~26°C), against historical April averages of 26°C. New SMN bulletins and model runs expected April 15 could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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