Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 12°C at 49% implied probability for April 16 in Istanbul, reflecting the latest guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs near 12–13°C amid persistent northerly winds advecting cool continental air masses. Recent observations confirm this trend, with April 12–13 highs limited to 12–13°C under cloudy skies and light precipitation, well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Overcast conditions and weak solar insolation continue to cap warming potential, though model ensembles show spread (±1–2°C) due to steering pattern uncertainties. Watch MGM hourly updates and fresh ECMWF runs by April 15 for potential shifts ahead of resolution based on official airport measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 16?
14°C 21%
11°C 18%
15°C 16%
16°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
10°C or below
7%
11°C
18%
12°C
34%
13°C
27%
14°C
21%
15°C
16%
16°C
16%
17°C
4%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C or higher
1%
14°C 21%
11°C 18%
15°C 16%
16°C 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
10°C or below
$33 Vol.
7%
11°C
$26 Vol.
18%
12°C
$41 Vol.
34%
13°C
$19 Vol.
27%
14°C
$23 Vol.
21%
15°C
$34 Vol.
16%
16°C
$32 Vol.
16%
17°C
$72 Vol.
4%
18°C
$219 Vol.
2%
19°C
$35 Vol.
2%
20°C or higher
$313 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 12°C at 49% implied probability for April 16 in Istanbul, reflecting the latest guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs near 12–13°C amid persistent northerly winds advecting cool continental air masses. Recent observations confirm this trend, with April 12–13 highs limited to 12–13°C under cloudy skies and light precipitation, well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Overcast conditions and weak solar insolation continue to cap warming potential, though model ensembles show spread (±1–2°C) due to steering pattern uncertainties. Watch MGM hourly updates and fresh ECMWF runs by April 15 for potential shifts ahead of resolution based on official airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volumen
$802Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 12°C at 49% implied probability for April 16 in Istanbul, reflecting the latest guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs near 12–13°C amid persistent northerly winds advecting cool continental air masses. Recent observations confirm this trend, with April 12–13 highs limited to 12–13°C under cloudy skies and light precipitation, well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Overcast conditions and weak solar insolation continue to cap warming potential, though model ensembles show spread (±1–2°C) due to steering pattern uncertainties. Watch MGM hourly updates and fresh ECMWF runs by April 15 for potential shifts ahead of resolution based on official airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$802Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 12°C at 49% implied probability for April 16 in Istanbul, reflecting the latest guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs near 12–13°C amid persistent northerly winds advecting cool continental air masses. Recent observations confirm this trend, with April 12–13 highs limited to 12–13°C under cloudy skies and light precipitation, well below the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Overcast conditions and weak solar insolation continue to cap warming potential, though model ensembles show spread (±1–2°C) due to steering pattern uncertainties. Watch MGM hourly updates and fresh ECMWF runs by April 15 for potential shifts ahead of resolution based on official airport measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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