Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?
19°C or higher 99.4%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
NUEVO
$242,148 Vol.
NUEVO
$242,148 Vol.
15 abr 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
99%
19°C or higher 99.4%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
NUEVO
$242,148 Vol.
NUEVO
$242,148 Vol.
15 abr 2026
9°C or below
$4,382 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$12,490 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$10,757 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$4,341 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$4,241 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$4,316 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$11,334 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$40,768 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$48,583 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$45,884 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$55,070 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Volumen
$242,148Fecha de finalización
15 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$242,148Fecha de finalización
15 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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