Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 15, with 34°C leading at 34% implied probability, closely trailed by 33°C (29%) and 32°C (23%), driven by NiMet's recent outlooks showing isolated thunderstorms and light rains over Lagos in early April that have capped recent highs around 33–35°C despite April 10's peak of 35°C. Increasing convective activity and cloud cover during the dry-to-wet season transition reduce insolation, while persistent high humidity (80%+) and sea breeze advection moderate peaks; differentiation hinges on cloud fraction during midday solar maximum and timing of any showers versus clearer skies allowing 34°C. Official NiMet observations will resolve tomorrow amid model consensus near 33°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lagos on April 15?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 15?
34°C 32%
33°C 23%
32°C 22%
35°C 14%
NUEVO
$25,339 Vol.
NUEVO
$25,339 Vol.
15 abr 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
7%
32°C
22%
33°C
26%
34°C
32%
35°C
14%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
1%
34°C 32%
33°C 23%
32°C 22%
35°C 14%
NUEVO
$25,339 Vol.
NUEVO
$25,339 Vol.
15 abr 2026
27°C or below
$4,574 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,017 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,776 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$7,668 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,492 Vol.
7%
32°C
$272 Vol.
22%
33°C
$269 Vol.
26%
34°C
$245 Vol.
32%
35°C
$235 Vol.
14%
36°C
$920 Vol.
3%
37°C or higher
$5,872 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 15, with 34°C leading at 34% implied probability, closely trailed by 33°C (29%) and 32°C (23%), driven by NiMet's recent outlooks showing isolated thunderstorms and light rains over Lagos in early April that have capped recent highs around 33–35°C despite April 10's peak of 35°C. Increasing convective activity and cloud cover during the dry-to-wet season transition reduce insolation, while persistent high humidity (80%+) and sea breeze advection moderate peaks; differentiation hinges on cloud fraction during midday solar maximum and timing of any showers versus clearer skies allowing 34°C. Official NiMet observations will resolve tomorrow amid model consensus near 33°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Volumen
$25,339Fecha de finalización
15 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 15, with 34°C leading at 34% implied probability, closely trailed by 33°C (29%) and 32°C (23%), driven by NiMet's recent outlooks showing isolated thunderstorms and light rains over Lagos in early April that have capped recent highs around 33–35°C despite April 10's peak of 35°C. Increasing convective activity and cloud cover during the dry-to-wet season transition reduce insolation, while persistent high humidity (80%+) and sea breeze advection moderate peaks; differentiation hinges on cloud fraction during midday solar maximum and timing of any showers versus clearer skies allowing 34°C. Official NiMet observations will resolve tomorrow amid model consensus near 33°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$25,339Fecha de finalización
15 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 15, with 34°C leading at 34% implied probability, closely trailed by 33°C (29%) and 32°C (23%), driven by NiMet's recent outlooks showing isolated thunderstorms and light rains over Lagos in early April that have capped recent highs around 33–35°C despite April 10's peak of 35°C. Increasing convective activity and cloud cover during the dry-to-wet season transition reduce insolation, while persistent high humidity (80%+) and sea breeze advection moderate peaks; differentiation hinges on cloud fraction during midday solar maximum and timing of any showers versus clearer skies allowing 34°C. Official NiMet observations will resolve tomorrow amid model consensus near 33°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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