Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to 17°C or higher as the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime highs near 16-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly airflow and above-average warmth for mid-April. Recent runs over the past 48 hours have trended warmer, reducing cold-outlier odds like 7°C or below to 25.5% despite lingering model spread from potential northerly shifts. Historical mid-April averages hover around 14°C per IMGW climatology, with current forecasts showing low precipitation risk; watch daily updates from Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) for refinements ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
16°C 28%
15°C 27%
14°C 21%
17°C or higher 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 abr 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
11%
11°C
10%
12°C
18%
13°C
12%
14°C
21%
15°C
27%
16°C
28%
17°C or higher
19%
16°C 28%
15°C 27%
14°C 21%
17°C or higher 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 abr 2026
7°C or below
$285 Vol.
1%
8°C
$285 Vol.
1%
9°C
$112 Vol.
3%
10°C
$0 Vol.
11%
11°C
$0 Vol.
10%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
12%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$11 Vol.
28%
17°C or higher
$7 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to 17°C or higher as the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime highs near 16-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly airflow and above-average warmth for mid-April. Recent runs over the past 48 hours have trended warmer, reducing cold-outlier odds like 7°C or below to 25.5% despite lingering model spread from potential northerly shifts. Historical mid-April averages hover around 14°C per IMGW climatology, with current forecasts showing low precipitation risk; watch daily updates from Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Volumen
$700Fecha de finalización
17 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to 17°C or higher as the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime highs near 16-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly airflow and above-average warmth for mid-April. Recent runs over the past 48 hours have trended warmer, reducing cold-outlier odds like 7°C or below to 25.5% despite lingering model spread from potential northerly shifts. Historical mid-April averages hover around 14°C per IMGW climatology, with current forecasts showing low precipitation risk; watch daily updates from Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$700Fecha de finalización
17 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to 17°C or higher as the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime highs near 16-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly airflow and above-average warmth for mid-April. Recent runs over the past 48 hours have trended warmer, reducing cold-outlier odds like 7°C or below to 25.5% despite lingering model spread from potential northerly shifts. Historical mid-April averages hover around 14°C per IMGW climatology, with current forecasts showing low precipitation risk; watch daily updates from Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) for refinements ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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