Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering of maximum temperatures around 15-16°C for Warsaw on April 16, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes with implied probabilities of 28-29%. This reflects mild southerly air advection under a developing upper-level ridge, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northwest winds that limit boundary layer heating and solar insolation. Model spread arises from uncertainties in diurnal cloud timing and frontal remnants, with historical mid-April averages near 14°C providing baseline context amid spring warming trends. Official resolution uses Warsaw Chopin Airport observations from IMGW; watch for 00Z model updates overnight that could refine consensus before peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 16?
16°C 35%
15°C 21%
14°C 19%
17°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
7%
14°C
19%
15°C
26%
16°C
35%
17°C
8%
18°C
8%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
1%
16°C 35%
15°C 21%
14°C 19%
17°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 abr 2026
10°C or below
$250 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$249 Vol.
1%
12°C
$86 Vol.
4%
13°C
$80 Vol.
7%
14°C
$191 Vol.
19%
15°C
$303 Vol.
26%
16°C
$139 Vol.
35%
17°C
$127 Vol.
8%
18°C
$79 Vol.
8%
19°C
$99 Vol.
3%
20°C or higher
$157 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering of maximum temperatures around 15-16°C for Warsaw on April 16, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes with implied probabilities of 28-29%. This reflects mild southerly air advection under a developing upper-level ridge, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northwest winds that limit boundary layer heating and solar insolation. Model spread arises from uncertainties in diurnal cloud timing and frontal remnants, with historical mid-April averages near 14°C providing baseline context amid spring warming trends. Official resolution uses Warsaw Chopin Airport observations from IMGW; watch for 00Z model updates overnight that could refine consensus before peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volumen
$1,747Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:14 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering of maximum temperatures around 15-16°C for Warsaw on April 16, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes with implied probabilities of 28-29%. This reflects mild southerly air advection under a developing upper-level ridge, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northwest winds that limit boundary layer heating and solar insolation. Model spread arises from uncertainties in diurnal cloud timing and frontal remnants, with historical mid-April averages near 14°C providing baseline context amid spring warming trends. Official resolution uses Warsaw Chopin Airport observations from IMGW; watch for 00Z model updates overnight that could refine consensus before peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,747Fecha de finalización
16 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:14 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a tight clustering of maximum temperatures around 15-16°C for Warsaw on April 16, driving the near-even trader split between these outcomes with implied probabilities of 28-29%. This reflects mild southerly air advection under a developing upper-level ridge, tempered by partial cloud cover and light northwest winds that limit boundary layer heating and solar insolation. Model spread arises from uncertainties in diurnal cloud timing and frontal remnants, with historical mid-April averages near 14°C providing baseline context amid spring warming trends. Official resolution uses Warsaw Chopin Airport observations from IMGW; watch for 00Z model updates overnight that could refine consensus before peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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