Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong model agreement from ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting Warsaw's highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15 around 16°C, implying an 87% probability for 15°C or higher. This positioning stems from the latest forecast runs over the past 24 hours, showing a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe advecting mild continental air masses northward, with light southerly winds and partial sunshine boosting daytime heating above the mid-April climatological average of 13-14°C. Current observations today reached 14-15°C under clear skies, reinforcing continuity. While minor shower risks or increased cloudiness could cap peaks at 14°C (7.7% implied odds), official IMGW updates and hourly airport data through tomorrow will refine resolution amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
15°C or higher 88%
14°C 9.7%
13°C 2.4%
12°C <1%
NUEVO
$85,102 Vol.
NUEVO
$85,102 Vol.
15 abr 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
10%
15°C or higher
88%
15°C or higher 88%
14°C 9.7%
13°C 2.4%
12°C <1%
NUEVO
$85,102 Vol.
NUEVO
$85,102 Vol.
15 abr 2026
5°C or below
$1,423 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$3,687 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$563 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$2,370 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$7,070 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$10,187 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$10,494 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$9,085 Vol.
1%
13°C
$8,197 Vol.
2%
14°C
$8,597 Vol.
10%
15°C or higher
$23,428 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong model agreement from ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting Warsaw's highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15 around 16°C, implying an 87% probability for 15°C or higher. This positioning stems from the latest forecast runs over the past 24 hours, showing a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe advecting mild continental air masses northward, with light southerly winds and partial sunshine boosting daytime heating above the mid-April climatological average of 13-14°C. Current observations today reached 14-15°C under clear skies, reinforcing continuity. While minor shower risks or increased cloudiness could cap peaks at 14°C (7.7% implied odds), official IMGW updates and hourly airport data through tomorrow will refine resolution amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volumen
$85,102Fecha de finalización
15 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong model agreement from ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting Warsaw's highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15 around 16°C, implying an 87% probability for 15°C or higher. This positioning stems from the latest forecast runs over the past 24 hours, showing a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe advecting mild continental air masses northward, with light southerly winds and partial sunshine boosting daytime heating above the mid-April climatological average of 13-14°C. Current observations today reached 14-15°C under clear skies, reinforcing continuity. While minor shower risks or increased cloudiness could cap peaks at 14°C (7.7% implied odds), official IMGW updates and hourly airport data through tomorrow will refine resolution amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$85,102Fecha de finalización
15 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects strong model agreement from ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting Warsaw's highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15 around 16°C, implying an 87% probability for 15°C or higher. This positioning stems from the latest forecast runs over the past 24 hours, showing a persistent high-pressure ridge over Central Europe advecting mild continental air masses northward, with light southerly winds and partial sunshine boosting daytime heating above the mid-April climatological average of 13-14°C. Current observations today reached 14-15°C under clear skies, reinforcing continuity. While minor shower risks or increased cloudiness could cap peaks at 14°C (7.7% implied odds), official IMGW updates and hourly airport data through tomorrow will refine resolution amid typical spring forecast uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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