Consensus forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models drive the heavy trader favoritism for Chicago's March 22 high of 63°F or below at 71.5% implied probability, projecting a daytime peak near 60-62°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. This aligns with seasonal climatology—March averages hover around 45-50°F historically—but recent mild upper-level ridging has nudged expectations upward without exceeding early spring norms. Latest GFS updates at 12Z show minimal divergence, reinforcing stability, while slim odds for 80°F+ (0.5%) reflect vanishing risk of unseasonal heat amid persistent cool mid-level troughs offshore. Traders eye afternoon soundings for final confirmation before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 72%
64-65°F 13.3%
66-67°F 5.2%
68-69°F 1.9%
$48,464 Vol.
$48,464 Vol.
63°F or below
72%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
63°F or below 72%
64-65°F 13.3%
66-67°F 5.2%
68-69°F 1.9%
$48,464 Vol.
$48,464 Vol.
63°F or below
72%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Consensus forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models drive the heavy trader favoritism for Chicago's March 22 high of 63°F or below at 71.5% implied probability, projecting a daytime peak near 60-62°F under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds. This aligns with seasonal climatology—March averages hover around 45-50°F historically—but recent mild upper-level ridging has nudged expectations upward without exceeding early spring norms. Latest GFS updates at 12Z show minimal divergence, reinforcing stability, while slim odds for 80°F+ (0.5%) reflect vanishing risk of unseasonal heat amid persistent cool mid-level troughs offshore. Traders eye afternoon soundings for final confirmation before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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