Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Milan high of 13°C at 34%, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (23%) close behind, reflecting tight model spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts as of late March 24. Primary drivers include a building high-pressure ridge over central Europe ushering mild southerly flow, boosting daytime highs above seasonal norms of 12-13°C, tempered by variable low-level clouds potentially capping peaks at 12-14°C. Short-range uncertainty stems from differing high-resolution runs on boundary layer mixing and insolation, with ARPA Lombardia observations showing recent diurnal swings of 1-2°C. Upcoming 00Z model updates could shift odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 26?
13°C 35%
12°C 28%
14°C 20%
15°C 13%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
3%
11°C
8%
12°C
28%
13°C
35%
14°C
20%
15°C
13%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
2%
13°C 35%
12°C 28%
14°C 20%
15°C 13%
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
3%
11°C
8%
12°C
28%
13°C
35%
14°C
20%
15°C
13%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Milan high of 13°C at 34%, with 12°C (27%) and 14°C (23%) close behind, reflecting tight model spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts as of late March 24. Primary drivers include a building high-pressure ridge over central Europe ushering mild southerly flow, boosting daytime highs above seasonal norms of 12-13°C, tempered by variable low-level clouds potentially capping peaks at 12-14°C. Short-range uncertainty stems from differing high-resolution runs on boundary layer mixing and insolation, with ARPA Lombardia observations showing recent diurnal swings of 1-2°C. Upcoming 00Z model updates could shift odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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